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A friend of mine asked me last night if I was rooting for the Caps to make the playoffs. My response was yeah, I am. But if they don't make it, it won't bother me at all. I am honestly split 50/50 on it. Yes, I hope they win their last 2 games and get in as the 8 seed. At the same time, if they don't make it, I will be happy that the 'Bears' players on the team will be returning to Hershey for a Calder Cup run.
He felt differently. While he isn't actively rooting against the Caps, he sure as hell isn't rooting for them either. And I am guessing there are many in Bears nation who feel the same way. And with good reason. Should the Caps miss the playoffs the Bears team would get immediately better with the additions of Keith Aucoin, Dmitry Orlov, Cody Eakin, and Braden Holtby.
Obviously, considering the injuries in Hershey right now, an influx in talent like that could be a difference maker. Especially when you are likely facing the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the first round.
Now, he also said to me that if he felt the Caps had a legitimate chance at the Cup he might feel differently, but in his opinion they are basically playing for an early exit.
This is where I guess him and I disagree the most. Despite their uninspired play at regular intervals during the season, including as recently as Monday in Tampa, I believe that they have as good a chance at the Stanley Cup as any other team in the league.
Is that crazy? Probably. But with a healthy Nicklas Backstrom this team is mostly the version that the Capitals envisioned when they put it together last summer. And remember, this team was healthy at the beginning of the year as well...and they went 7-0 to open the season.
But let's forget about that for a second. Obviously I am a nut-job if I think the Caps have as good a chance at the Stanley Cup as the Flyers or Penguins or Rangers. Obviously.
So, the question is...what are the Bears chances at winning the Calder Cup?
Healthy? Pretty damn good.
Current state? Not likely.
That means that if the Caps are eliminated the Bears chances would skyrocket...right?
I don't think so. The Bears need to be healthy to compete with the top teams in the league. Jacob Micflikier, Graham Mink, Christian Hanson, and Patrick McNeill are all injured and are either barely practicing (Mink and McNeill), not practicing (Micflikier), or OUT for at least the rest of the regular season (Hanson).
Add to that list Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Ryan Potulny who sat out practice on Tuesday for a 'maintenance day'. Nothing to be alarmed about, but when guys start missing any practice time you start to worry a little.
Will adding Aucoin, Eakin, Orlov, and Holtby really make up for all the other injuries?
I don't think so. Yes, getting a healthy Aucoin (still #4 in the league in scoring, 2nd in assists) would be huge. But would it make the Bears better than Norfolk? A team that hasn't lost since February 4? Doubtful.
Who knows what Orlov will be like in Hershey. I am sure he will play hard, but he hasn't been a Bear since before Thanksgiving. Will his return cause more issues on the blueline then help?
Eakin is a stud and definitely makes the team better...but he isn't going to win games on his own.
And Holtby...let's just say there are still huge questions about his playoff ability. He has played 9 playoff games and his goals against average is well above 3.00 and his save percentage is well below .900. And he wasn't exactly setting the league on fire before his recall to Washington.
So, yes. If the Caps miss the playoffs the Bears would be in better shape. But unless they get the rest of their players back from injury, they aren't legitimate title contenders.
So...again...I am rooting for the Caps to win their last two...but I won't be disappointed if they fail to show up in those games too.
How about you, are you rooting for the Caps to win or to do what they have been doing for most of the season, fall flat on their faces?
13 Mayıs 2012 Pazar
Final Home Regular Season Game
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The Hershey Bears will host the Connecticut Whale at 5:00pm tonight in the final regular season game at Giant Center in 2011-12. There will be at least one home playoff game, but the final 3 regular season games are in New England.
This evening's game against the Whale could seal the Bears first round opponent. If the Bears win, whether in regulation or after, the Bears would finish no worse than 5th in the Eastern Conference and would play the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the 5-game first round series.
Should the Bears lose, the Whale would be only four points back with 3 games to play. As luck would have it the two teams play similar teams the rest of the way as well. Both the Bears and Whale play Portland and Manchester. But we will worry about that tomorrow....if necessary.
Unfortunately for the Bears the recent past has not been promising. Four straight losses has followed a 7 game winning streak.
The scratches and lineup changes, announced before the opening faceoff, takes a little longer and is a who's who of AHL talent.
And with the games becoming more physical as the playoffs grow near, that list is as likely to grow as it is to shrink. Both Ryan Potulny and Boyd Kane departed games this weekend after big hits. Both did return, but the game is taking its toll on guys.
If things weren't bad enough....there was this in the paper this morning:
So, add disgruntled employee to the list of problems for the Bears at a critical moment in the season.
Dany Sabourin was expected to return to Hershey for the game tonight and will likely get the start. The Capitals don't play until at least Wednesday so they don't need Dany there for the time being.
If Michal Neuvirth and Tomas Vokoun's injuries keep them out for an extended period it will be interesting to see how the goalies are handled between Washington and Hershey. It isn't out of the question that Dany could just yo-yo between the teams if the schedules work out for that.
For example, if the Caps play Thursday-Saturday next weekend, Dany could play Friday and Sunday for the Bears. Especially since the Caps will be in Boston for the first 2 games anyhow.
That kind of rotation could continue for Dany if the Bears playoff schedule fits into the Caps schedule. If the schedules don't work out you can be assured that Dany is Capitals property first and Bears second.
More will be known later today I am sure. Hopefully Neuvy or Vokoun can recover enough to at least serve as a backup which would allow Dany to return to Hershey full time. I wouldn't expect both goalies to recover in time so the likelihood of Braden Holtby returning to Hershey is unlikely until the Caps are eliminated, if they would be.
Have a Happy Easter and enjoy the regular season home finale tonight!
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
This evening's game against the Whale could seal the Bears first round opponent. If the Bears win, whether in regulation or after, the Bears would finish no worse than 5th in the Eastern Conference and would play the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the 5-game first round series.
Should the Bears lose, the Whale would be only four points back with 3 games to play. As luck would have it the two teams play similar teams the rest of the way as well. Both the Bears and Whale play Portland and Manchester. But we will worry about that tomorrow....if necessary.
Unfortunately for the Bears the recent past has not been promising. Four straight losses has followed a 7 game winning streak.
The scratches and lineup changes, announced before the opening faceoff, takes a little longer and is a who's who of AHL talent.
And with the games becoming more physical as the playoffs grow near, that list is as likely to grow as it is to shrink. Both Ryan Potulny and Boyd Kane departed games this weekend after big hits. Both did return, but the game is taking its toll on guys.
If things weren't bad enough....there was this in the paper this morning:
French banished defenseman Kevin Marshall during the game. “It was a team-related matter,” French said.That is from Tim Leone's write-up for the paper this morning. I have no idea what happened, but when a respected beat-writer like Leone uses the word "banished" it definitely raises some eyebrows. It will be interesting to see if Marshall has a jersey for tonight's game.
So, add disgruntled employee to the list of problems for the Bears at a critical moment in the season.
Dany Sabourin was expected to return to Hershey for the game tonight and will likely get the start. The Capitals don't play until at least Wednesday so they don't need Dany there for the time being.
If Michal Neuvirth and Tomas Vokoun's injuries keep them out for an extended period it will be interesting to see how the goalies are handled between Washington and Hershey. It isn't out of the question that Dany could just yo-yo between the teams if the schedules work out for that.
For example, if the Caps play Thursday-Saturday next weekend, Dany could play Friday and Sunday for the Bears. Especially since the Caps will be in Boston for the first 2 games anyhow.
That kind of rotation could continue for Dany if the Bears playoff schedule fits into the Caps schedule. If the schedules don't work out you can be assured that Dany is Capitals property first and Bears second.
More will be known later today I am sure. Hopefully Neuvy or Vokoun can recover enough to at least serve as a backup which would allow Dany to return to Hershey full time. I wouldn't expect both goalies to recover in time so the likelihood of Braden Holtby returning to Hershey is unlikely until the Caps are eliminated, if they would be.
Have a Happy Easter and enjoy the regular season home finale tonight!
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Final 3 Games Coming Up
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The Bears have 3 games left in their regular season. This Friday they visit Portland, Saturday at Manchester, and the final regular season game is Sunday at Worcester.
After that the playoffs will begin. The Bears first round opponent has not yet been determined though. Everything seems to be setting up for a Wilkes-Barre/Scranton - Hershey Bears first round matchup, but it definitely is not set in stone.
Considering how the Bears have played of late (5 straight losses) there is no way you can definitively say that the Bears will get the #5 spot in the Eastern Conference.
Currently the Bears sit there in 5th. 5 points behind Wilkes-Barre and 4 points ahead of Connecticut. The chances of the Bears getting the 4th seed are slim to none. They would have to win out and have Wilkes-Barre lose the rest of their games. The Baby Pens are 7-3 in their last 10...I don't expect them to go on a 3 game losing streak to close the season.
The Bears falling to 6th seems more possible, although still not likely. The Whale would need to win their last 3 while the Bears would need to lose their last 3. The only reason this is more possible is because the Bears haven't exactly been playing well of late.
And if they run the same lineup that they did on Sunday, for the rest of the season, no one will be surprised if they lose all three games. (Just a note...I don't hate that lineup, its just that you aren't going to see a lot of scoring from a lineup featuring half a dozen recent college graduates. They hustle and play hard, but the skill isn't quite there.)
Sure, there is a possible benefit to dropping to 6th for Hershey. They would get the winner of the Northeast division, currently the Bridgeport Sound Tigers (although Connecticut still has a shot too) instead of the rival Penguins.
Obviously, at first glance you would think this is a good thing. Both Bridgeport and Connecticut will finish with fewer points than the Pens and not many people would mistake either the Tigers or Whale for a better team than Wilkes-Barre.
But, there are three things to keep in mind here...
1. Hershey only went 1-3 against Connecticut this season. And if Hershey does fall to 6th, behind the Whale, there is the distinct possibility that the Whale also passes Bridgeport for the division crown and the 3rd seed. Hershey is 2-1-0-1 against Bridgeport so should the Tigers hang on to the division lead this would likely be a better matchup for Hershey.
2. If Hershey does finish as the 6-seed and gets by the Northeast champ in round 1 it would likely set up a Norfolk-Hershey 2nd round. Personally, if I am the Bears and I was confident in a Calder Cup run I would prefer to wait until the Eastern Conference finals to play the team that hasn't lost in over 2 months.
Sure, as the 5-seed the Bears are also in line to get the Admirals in round 2, but the chances of a lower seed winning grow substantially if the 6th seed is someone other than Hershey. Meaning, I expect that the Whale's chances of beating the Tigers in the 6/3 matchup are much better than any 7-seed beating the St. Johns IceCaps.
3. Is Wilkes-Barre really that tough of a matchup? Sure the rivalry is intense and the Baby Pens have had the Bears number for much of the last 2 seasons, but are the Pens good enough to win a best of 5 series? Hershey went 5-5-1-1 against the Baby Pens this season. That includes last weekends loss when the Bears were a shell of their true selves.
When the Bears are healthy, which they will be much closer to 100% healthy by the time the playoffs start, things are much different and the Bears are capable of beating anyone.
In addition, the Pens are a bad home team. So for them to get home-ice is not that much of a disadvantage for the Bears. The Baby Pens are 25th in the AHL in winning percentage at home this season, winning only 47.2% of their home games. The Bears were the AHL's 10th best team in regards to winning percentage on the road this season, winning 51.4% of their games.
It is true that Hershey is better at home and the Pens are better on the road, but all I am saying is that Hershey is a better road team than the Pens are a home team. So, considering that 3 of the first round games are likely to be played in Wilkes-Barre, the Bears are in good shape there.
No matter what though the Bears will only be competitive in the playoffs if they are healthy. And there is definite good news on that front. Graham Mink, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, and DJ King all practiced on Tuesday. Whether they play this weekend or not is not clear as of right now, but they should all be ready for the playoffs which is where the real importance lies.
In addition to that, Michal Neuvirth is expected to be ready for the NHL playoffs and will make the trip to Boston with the Caps. That means that Dany Sabourin will be back in Hershey for the AHL playoffs. The chances of Braden Holtby returning before either the Caps are eliminated or the second round, should the Caps eliminate the Bruins, are slim to none as Tomas Vokoun is still a ways off from returning.
As for Keith Aucoin, Cody Eakin, and Dmitry Orlov....you won't see them in Hershey until the Caps are eliminated. The first round series with Boston goes like this...Thursday, Saturday, Monday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Wednesday. That means the earliest the Caps could be eliminated is next Thursday night.
Since an opponent for the Bears first round series is still undecided there is no word on a playoff schedule either. My guess is that the Bears/Pens season would either start next Wednesday or Friday, at the latest. So, chances are Coiner, Eakin, and Orlov won't be in Hershey for the start of the series. However, they could be back for the end depending on the success that Washington has.
I really believe the Bears have the talent to win the Calder Cup. The first step is to get the guys in house healthy, which is occurring. That is priority 1. No matter what happens with Washington, the Bears can be successful in the playoffs with the guys they have in house.
However, I think the Bears will fail to advance too far in the Calder Cup playoffs without another center in the lineup. Right now the depth chart at center looks like this Ryan Potulny - Mike Carmen - Andrew Carroll. While I love what Carmen has done recently and I love the hustle Carroll displays...neither are going to provide enough offense to carry the team in the playoffs.
Don't think for a second that it was a coincidence that Hershey's 7 game winning streak ended and their 5 game losing streak started as soon as their #2 center, Cody Eakin, was recalled to Washington a couple of weeks ago. The items are directly related.
Until Hershey sees another center return to the lineup they will struggle to get past a team such as Norfolk. So, if you are hoping to see the Bears win their 12th Calder Cup, you should be hoping for Christian Hanson to return from his wrist injury (reportedly mid-May as of now, by the way) or a early exit for the Caps and a return to Hershey of Eakin and Aucoin.
If either of those happens...even Norfolk will have had a hard time beating the Bears.
After that the playoffs will begin. The Bears first round opponent has not yet been determined though. Everything seems to be setting up for a Wilkes-Barre/Scranton - Hershey Bears first round matchup, but it definitely is not set in stone.
Considering how the Bears have played of late (5 straight losses) there is no way you can definitively say that the Bears will get the #5 spot in the Eastern Conference.
Currently the Bears sit there in 5th. 5 points behind Wilkes-Barre and 4 points ahead of Connecticut. The chances of the Bears getting the 4th seed are slim to none. They would have to win out and have Wilkes-Barre lose the rest of their games. The Baby Pens are 7-3 in their last 10...I don't expect them to go on a 3 game losing streak to close the season.
The Bears falling to 6th seems more possible, although still not likely. The Whale would need to win their last 3 while the Bears would need to lose their last 3. The only reason this is more possible is because the Bears haven't exactly been playing well of late.
And if they run the same lineup that they did on Sunday, for the rest of the season, no one will be surprised if they lose all three games. (Just a note...I don't hate that lineup, its just that you aren't going to see a lot of scoring from a lineup featuring half a dozen recent college graduates. They hustle and play hard, but the skill isn't quite there.)
Sure, there is a possible benefit to dropping to 6th for Hershey. They would get the winner of the Northeast division, currently the Bridgeport Sound Tigers (although Connecticut still has a shot too) instead of the rival Penguins.
Obviously, at first glance you would think this is a good thing. Both Bridgeport and Connecticut will finish with fewer points than the Pens and not many people would mistake either the Tigers or Whale for a better team than Wilkes-Barre.
But, there are three things to keep in mind here...
1. Hershey only went 1-3 against Connecticut this season. And if Hershey does fall to 6th, behind the Whale, there is the distinct possibility that the Whale also passes Bridgeport for the division crown and the 3rd seed. Hershey is 2-1-0-1 against Bridgeport so should the Tigers hang on to the division lead this would likely be a better matchup for Hershey.
2. If Hershey does finish as the 6-seed and gets by the Northeast champ in round 1 it would likely set up a Norfolk-Hershey 2nd round. Personally, if I am the Bears and I was confident in a Calder Cup run I would prefer to wait until the Eastern Conference finals to play the team that hasn't lost in over 2 months.
Sure, as the 5-seed the Bears are also in line to get the Admirals in round 2, but the chances of a lower seed winning grow substantially if the 6th seed is someone other than Hershey. Meaning, I expect that the Whale's chances of beating the Tigers in the 6/3 matchup are much better than any 7-seed beating the St. Johns IceCaps.
3. Is Wilkes-Barre really that tough of a matchup? Sure the rivalry is intense and the Baby Pens have had the Bears number for much of the last 2 seasons, but are the Pens good enough to win a best of 5 series? Hershey went 5-5-1-1 against the Baby Pens this season. That includes last weekends loss when the Bears were a shell of their true selves.
When the Bears are healthy, which they will be much closer to 100% healthy by the time the playoffs start, things are much different and the Bears are capable of beating anyone.
In addition, the Pens are a bad home team. So for them to get home-ice is not that much of a disadvantage for the Bears. The Baby Pens are 25th in the AHL in winning percentage at home this season, winning only 47.2% of their home games. The Bears were the AHL's 10th best team in regards to winning percentage on the road this season, winning 51.4% of their games.
It is true that Hershey is better at home and the Pens are better on the road, but all I am saying is that Hershey is a better road team than the Pens are a home team. So, considering that 3 of the first round games are likely to be played in Wilkes-Barre, the Bears are in good shape there.
No matter what though the Bears will only be competitive in the playoffs if they are healthy. And there is definite good news on that front. Graham Mink, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, and DJ King all practiced on Tuesday. Whether they play this weekend or not is not clear as of right now, but they should all be ready for the playoffs which is where the real importance lies.
In addition to that, Michal Neuvirth is expected to be ready for the NHL playoffs and will make the trip to Boston with the Caps. That means that Dany Sabourin will be back in Hershey for the AHL playoffs. The chances of Braden Holtby returning before either the Caps are eliminated or the second round, should the Caps eliminate the Bruins, are slim to none as Tomas Vokoun is still a ways off from returning.
As for Keith Aucoin, Cody Eakin, and Dmitry Orlov....you won't see them in Hershey until the Caps are eliminated. The first round series with Boston goes like this...Thursday, Saturday, Monday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Wednesday. That means the earliest the Caps could be eliminated is next Thursday night.
Since an opponent for the Bears first round series is still undecided there is no word on a playoff schedule either. My guess is that the Bears/Pens season would either start next Wednesday or Friday, at the latest. So, chances are Coiner, Eakin, and Orlov won't be in Hershey for the start of the series. However, they could be back for the end depending on the success that Washington has.
I really believe the Bears have the talent to win the Calder Cup. The first step is to get the guys in house healthy, which is occurring. That is priority 1. No matter what happens with Washington, the Bears can be successful in the playoffs with the guys they have in house.
However, I think the Bears will fail to advance too far in the Calder Cup playoffs without another center in the lineup. Right now the depth chart at center looks like this Ryan Potulny - Mike Carmen - Andrew Carroll. While I love what Carmen has done recently and I love the hustle Carroll displays...neither are going to provide enough offense to carry the team in the playoffs.
Don't think for a second that it was a coincidence that Hershey's 7 game winning streak ended and their 5 game losing streak started as soon as their #2 center, Cody Eakin, was recalled to Washington a couple of weeks ago. The items are directly related.
Until Hershey sees another center return to the lineup they will struggle to get past a team such as Norfolk. So, if you are hoping to see the Bears win their 12th Calder Cup, you should be hoping for Christian Hanson to return from his wrist injury (reportedly mid-May as of now, by the way) or a early exit for the Caps and a return to Hershey of Eakin and Aucoin.
If either of those happens...even Norfolk will have had a hard time beating the Bears.
Bears entering playoffs in need of help
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8 straight losses. The last 4 in regulation.
Outscored 14-7 over the weekend.
On Sunday, the starting goalie for the Bears was Scott Greenham. Greenham was recently known as the starting goaltender for the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. He recently completed his senior season, during which he played in 33 games going 11-18-4 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .905 save percentage.
Obviously the record and stats are as much about the team as they are the goalie, but did you really think that this could be the goalie for the first round of the AHL playoffs?
At the beginning of the season I felt as though the goaltending would be the Bears biggest question for the playoffs. I didn't realize I was such a prophet.
Braden Holtby is the new #1 goalie in Washington and Dany Sabourin is the current #2.
But the goaltending issues are very possible to be resolved by the time game 1 rolls around on Friday. Michal Neuvirth is getting better and seems likely to be able to at least back up the apparently 'unflappable' Holtby by then.
Which means Dany will be back in Hershey and the goaltending isn't as much of a question anymore.
Does that make you feel better though?
Based on the last 8 games I would say the Bears problems rest somewhere other that between the pipes. Sure Daren Machesney was brutal this past weekend, but Dany played in 4 of the last 8 games...and remember, they were all losses.
So the Bears problem is located somewhere in the remaining 5 guys on the ice.
The defense is healthy. Kevin Marshall returned to the lineup this weekend after being disciplined by the coaching staff for some questionable behavior. Which means the defense is pretty much at full strength. While not perfect, not really a problem either.
So that leaves the forwards. Graham Mink, Boyd Kane, and DJ King returned to the lineup this weekend after missing time. Minker was out for a while and getting him back is definitely a big deal.
But it didn't exactly lead to offensive production this weekend. Mink recorded no points and finished the weekend a -1 with 7 shots. Kane and King, more role players than Mink, weren't much better.
That leaves Jacob Micflikier as the only Bear who is looking to make his return to the lineup in the first round. He practiced fully last week but did not make the trip over the weekend. More than likely that was a precautionary measure more than anything and he will likely be ready to go for Friday night.
Does that solve the problem?
Not in my eyes. Getting Miclikier back is definitely a big deal and will absolutely help, but Hershey's problem right now is down the middle.
Currently there are 3 centers on the Bears roster, according to the team roster on AHL.com. They are Ryan Potulny, Mike Carmen, and Andrew Carroll. David Civitarese has been playing 4th line center of late so he would be the 4th center for the sake of this argument.
Carroll played in 68 games this season for the Bears and he was absolutely a key member in many regards. He is a good defensive player who kills penalties and brings a high energy game to the lineup. But he scored 1 goal and added only 5 assists in those 68 games. He is currently the 3rd line center.
At the beginning of the season Christian Hanson and Cody Eakin were playing 3rd line center. No offense to Carroll...that is a downgrade.
Carmen joined the team in February and played 32 games for the Bears. He has 7 goals and 5 assists in those games. Solid for a 3rd line center. But he is currently the 2nd line center.
At the beginning of the season the centers were Keith Aucoin, Potulny, Eakin/Hanson, and Carroll. Obviously Potulny and Aucoin are in a different class so I won't even discuss them, but let's take a look at what Christian and Cody did while they were with the Bears.
Eakin had 13 goals and 14 assists in 43 games. Hanson had 10 goals and 11 assists in 51 games. As I said, Carmen's numbers aren't terrible...for a 3rd line center.
Unfortunately for the Bears they are going to have to figure out some way to get through at least the first 2 games against the Pens without a true 2nd-line center. With the Capitals win over the Bruins on Saturday it guarantees that the series will now go through at least Saturday. Hershey visits Wilkes-Barre this Friday and Saturday for games 1 and 2.
It would be nice if the Caps would send Cody Eakin back for the Bears games. He isn't playing for the Caps and while it would surely be nice to have him for practice, I can't imagine there will be much practicing for the Caps during those couple of days. But I am sure as hell not going to hold my breathe.
I am pretty sure that Coach French also recognizes the problem as last week, according to one of Tim Leone's practice updates, Jacob Micflikier was working as the 2nd line center.
That might work out as well as Micflik can surely play a Cody Eakin like game. But it would just be a short term solution.
You could make the argument that the center problem is just a minor hiccup. But just so everyone is aware, the Bears are 1-6-0-2 since the Bears last had a legitimate 2nd line center in the lineup. That was Eakin and the only win came against the AHL's cellar-dwelling Binghamton Senators.
The Bears are going to have to buckle down defensively and play a solid all around game while capitalizing on their opportunities. I fully expect the Pens to outshoot and out-chance the Bears on Friday and Saturday. Hopefully the Bears can make the most of turnovers and power plays and get a few lucky bounces.
It's going to be a tough series considering the Bears personnel limitations currently. But I still have confidence. Bears in 4.
I will have a full blown series preview (or multiple maybe) later this week so definitely check back often.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!
Outscored 14-7 over the weekend.
On Sunday, the starting goalie for the Bears was Scott Greenham. Greenham was recently known as the starting goaltender for the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. He recently completed his senior season, during which he played in 33 games going 11-18-4 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .905 save percentage.
Obviously the record and stats are as much about the team as they are the goalie, but did you really think that this could be the goalie for the first round of the AHL playoffs?
At the beginning of the season I felt as though the goaltending would be the Bears biggest question for the playoffs. I didn't realize I was such a prophet.
Braden Holtby is the new #1 goalie in Washington and Dany Sabourin is the current #2.
But the goaltending issues are very possible to be resolved by the time game 1 rolls around on Friday. Michal Neuvirth is getting better and seems likely to be able to at least back up the apparently 'unflappable' Holtby by then.
Which means Dany will be back in Hershey and the goaltending isn't as much of a question anymore.
Does that make you feel better though?
Based on the last 8 games I would say the Bears problems rest somewhere other that between the pipes. Sure Daren Machesney was brutal this past weekend, but Dany played in 4 of the last 8 games...and remember, they were all losses.
So the Bears problem is located somewhere in the remaining 5 guys on the ice.
The defense is healthy. Kevin Marshall returned to the lineup this weekend after being disciplined by the coaching staff for some questionable behavior. Which means the defense is pretty much at full strength. While not perfect, not really a problem either.
So that leaves the forwards. Graham Mink, Boyd Kane, and DJ King returned to the lineup this weekend after missing time. Minker was out for a while and getting him back is definitely a big deal.
But it didn't exactly lead to offensive production this weekend. Mink recorded no points and finished the weekend a -1 with 7 shots. Kane and King, more role players than Mink, weren't much better.
That leaves Jacob Micflikier as the only Bear who is looking to make his return to the lineup in the first round. He practiced fully last week but did not make the trip over the weekend. More than likely that was a precautionary measure more than anything and he will likely be ready to go for Friday night.
Does that solve the problem?
Not in my eyes. Getting Miclikier back is definitely a big deal and will absolutely help, but Hershey's problem right now is down the middle.
Currently there are 3 centers on the Bears roster, according to the team roster on AHL.com. They are Ryan Potulny, Mike Carmen, and Andrew Carroll. David Civitarese has been playing 4th line center of late so he would be the 4th center for the sake of this argument.
Carroll played in 68 games this season for the Bears and he was absolutely a key member in many regards. He is a good defensive player who kills penalties and brings a high energy game to the lineup. But he scored 1 goal and added only 5 assists in those 68 games. He is currently the 3rd line center.
At the beginning of the season Christian Hanson and Cody Eakin were playing 3rd line center. No offense to Carroll...that is a downgrade.
Carmen joined the team in February and played 32 games for the Bears. He has 7 goals and 5 assists in those games. Solid for a 3rd line center. But he is currently the 2nd line center.
At the beginning of the season the centers were Keith Aucoin, Potulny, Eakin/Hanson, and Carroll. Obviously Potulny and Aucoin are in a different class so I won't even discuss them, but let's take a look at what Christian and Cody did while they were with the Bears.
Eakin had 13 goals and 14 assists in 43 games. Hanson had 10 goals and 11 assists in 51 games. As I said, Carmen's numbers aren't terrible...for a 3rd line center.
Unfortunately for the Bears they are going to have to figure out some way to get through at least the first 2 games against the Pens without a true 2nd-line center. With the Capitals win over the Bruins on Saturday it guarantees that the series will now go through at least Saturday. Hershey visits Wilkes-Barre this Friday and Saturday for games 1 and 2.
It would be nice if the Caps would send Cody Eakin back for the Bears games. He isn't playing for the Caps and while it would surely be nice to have him for practice, I can't imagine there will be much practicing for the Caps during those couple of days. But I am sure as hell not going to hold my breathe.
I am pretty sure that Coach French also recognizes the problem as last week, according to one of Tim Leone's practice updates, Jacob Micflikier was working as the 2nd line center.
That might work out as well as Micflik can surely play a Cody Eakin like game. But it would just be a short term solution.
You could make the argument that the center problem is just a minor hiccup. But just so everyone is aware, the Bears are 1-6-0-2 since the Bears last had a legitimate 2nd line center in the lineup. That was Eakin and the only win came against the AHL's cellar-dwelling Binghamton Senators.
The Bears are going to have to buckle down defensively and play a solid all around game while capitalizing on their opportunities. I fully expect the Pens to outshoot and out-chance the Bears on Friday and Saturday. Hopefully the Bears can make the most of turnovers and power plays and get a few lucky bounces.
It's going to be a tough series considering the Bears personnel limitations currently. But I still have confidence. Bears in 4.
I will have a full blown series preview (or multiple maybe) later this week so definitely check back often.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!
Bears vs Penguins...first one to 3 wins series
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Typically in sports, questions about teams are answered during the regular season. Unfortunately, in minor league sports, things don't always work out the way they are expected to. With recalls, loans, and trades, sometimes teams never get 'answers'.
At the beginning of the season the Bears looked like a legitimate Calder Cup contender. They had 2 goalies who would start for most teams, a defense that, while not exceptional, was definitely strong enough, and an offense that most considered the best in the league.
Now, the Bears have two goalies that have combined for 7 starts in the AHL this season. Those 7 starts have resulted in 7 losses by the way.
The offense has been decimated by recalls and injuries the past month or so. Keith Aucoin and Cody Eakin remain on recall to Washington and it is unlikely that either will be back until at least game 3 next Wednesday night...if then. Young Eakin hasn't been in the Caps lineup so far this postseason so the option is there to send him back to Hershey for the playoffs. However, I think that is unlikely.
In addition to those two, Jacob Micflikier hasn't played since March 9 and Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Graham Mink have missed games the past few weeks with injuries. Ryan Potulny has also been banged up in some games and hasn't been practicing 100% of the time either. And Christian Hanson was injured in a game on February 18 and I don't believe he has done anything since then.
The Bears roster of late has looked more like a college team than an AHL team as a number of players were signed to amateur tryout agreements and were given a rare opportunity at playing time with meaningful games left to play. Some of the guys have looked good...others have struggled.
The good news is that the players in Hershey seem to be getting healthy and fewer of the college guys are expected to play meaningful minutes in the postseason. Micflikier has practiced recently and King, Mink, and Kane all played in games this past weekend. Hanson is another story, but apparently a return has not been ruled out. As of Tuesday, he is officially out for games 1 and 2...anything after that is a guess I would imagine.
So the question is...are the Bears good enough to challenge for their 12th Calder Cup this spring?
As it stands now...no. The roster as of right now is definitely not good enough.
How about when all the players in Hershey are healthy and a goalie returns from Washington?
Still...no.
I think the Bears can give the Baby Pens a run with the roster they have now. As long as they get healthy and a goalie returns.
But you can't convince me that they will get through round 2 without reinforcements from Washington.
That isn't happening until game 3 at best. So let's not get ahead of ourselves. The immediate concern is the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. The first round, best of 5 (still think that is stupid) series begins this Friday. In case you haven't seen it, here is the schedule:
It was a pretty even series too. 4 of the games went to extra time and 9 of the games were decided by 2 goals or less, with 6 being decided by 1 goal.
Both teams scored 38 goals, 3.2 per game. Scoring was higher in Hershey than in Wilkes-Barre but again scoring was even...the Pens scored 22 to Hershey's 21 while at Giant Center, but the Bears scored 17 to the Pens 16 in Wilkes-Barre.
So now the differences:
Hershey was the stronger team in the first period...outscoring the Pens by 5 overall (2 in Hershey, 3 in WB). But the Penguins were the stronger team in the second period...outscoring the Bears by 4 (all in Hershey). The third period was pretty even with 14 Bears goals to 15 Wilkes-Barre goals....both teams were better on their home ice in the third period.
And special teams was definitely different. Hershey converted on 31% of their power plays on home ice but only 17.1% on the road. Wilkes-Barre only went 11.1% at Giant Center and a slightly better 17.6% on home ice.
That's the season series in a nutshell. It was closer than it felt because of Wilkes-Barre's domination the past couple of seasons. Up until February 5 the Bears hadn't beaten the Pens in Hershey in multiple seasons. Then they won the last 2 home games against the Pens including a 5-1 beating on February 12 (after Aucoin's recall).
Let's dig a little deeper and figure out which team has the upper hand going into the series:
Thiessen played in 9 of the 12 games against Hershey this season going 5-3-1 with a 2.86 gaa and .884 save percentage. Pretty similar to the rest of his season. He was in goal for both of Hershey's blowout wins as well.
Munroe only played in 3 games and went 2-0-1. But his measurables were worse then Thiessen's...3.48 gaa and .878 save percentage.
The expectation is that Thiessen will get the first chance, but who knows for sure.
In Hershey things are a little bit of a question mark. Obviously. But we aren't going to consider anything except for Dany Sabourin and Braden Holtby. Neuvy practiced in full yesterday so there is a good chance he will be ready to back up Holtby tonight against the Bruins which would allow Sabs to come back to Hershey.
Dany went 18-12-5 with a 2.76 gaa and .909 save percentage on the season. Unfortunately he was weaker against the Pens...6 games played, 5 started...4 of those were losses (one in a shootout) and only one was a win...that was the first game of the season. His measurables? 4.07 gaa with a .855 gaa.
Now, Dany has been better of late. In March and April he was 8-3-2 with a 2.17 gaa and .926 save percentage. Those are good numbers.
Obviously Dany is capable of being the guy...but Braden has been a stud against the Pens this year.
Should Braden come back for game 3...here are his numbers against the Pens:
7 starts...4-3...gaa of 2.00 and a save percentage of .926. And he was exceptional in 3 starts in Wilkes-Barre...1.44 gaa and a save percentage of .939.
Unfortunately Braden won't be in Hershey for games 1 and 2...at least. So...
Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.
Wilkes-Barre is expected to run with a group of defensemen that looks like this: Alexadre Picard, Robert Bortuzzo, Cody Wild, Alex Grant, Joey Mormina, and Philip Samuelsson. Simon Despres would be in the lineup but he was just recalled to Pittsburgh and may or may not be back.
Combined those 6 players (not counting Despres) played 47 games against the Bears this year, scored 4 goals, added 11 assists, and finished a combined +2. Individually, Alex Grant was the best with a +7 rating and 6 assists in 9 games against the Bears this season. Bortuzzo played in only 6 games and finished with 1 assist and a -3 rating.
There isn't an offensive stud among them and the Pens finished the season middle of the pack (15th) in goals against per game. An average group I believe.
Hershey is a different story. We are going to look at the Bears top 5 defenseman as those are definitive. Patrick McNeill, Kevin Marshall, Sean Collins, Julien Brouillette, and Tomas Kundratek. The 6th will probably be Cameron Schilling, but I could see Patrick Wellar get a chance as well.
Looking at the top 5 though...47 games played against the Pens...8 goals, 13 assists and a combined +1 rating. McNeill is actually the teams 3rd leading scorer against the Pens this year with 1 goal and 9 assists in 12 games. But he was a -6 and 8 of those points were on the power play...which tend to shrink in the playoffs.
Kundratek was pretty solid as well with 4 goals and a +6 rating in 8 games against the Pens in 2011-12. Wellar, should he get a jersey, was a +3 with 2 assists as well so he did well.
Overall, the Bears defense...I think...is better than Wilkes-Barre's. Especially when you consider the more aggressive system in place that calls for the defensemen to pinch more often.
Advantage...Hershey.
Wilkes-Barre saw 9 different forwards play in 10 or more games against the Bears this season. All 9 of them are expected to get jersey's during the playoffs as well. The anticipated line combinations for the Pens are (the names listed in italics are the 9 who played in 10+ against Hershey):
Nick Petersen - Ben Street - Geoff Walker
Bryan Lerg - Cal O’Reilly - Paul Thompson
Jason Williams - Brian Gibbons - Colin McDonald
Ryan Craig - Zach Sill - Brandon DeFazio
Eric Tangradi is a candidate to return should the big Pens get eliminated this weekend, but he surely won't be in the lineup for game 1.
11 of the 12 players mentioned above scored at least one goal against the Bears this season. Only Cal O'Reilly, who only played 1 game against the Bears this season, didn't score.
No player had more than 3 goals but 7 of the 12 had 3 goals (Peterson, Street, McDonald, Walker, Williams, Lerg, DeFazio).
The leading scorers against the Bears were Street (3g, 8a), McDonald (3g, 7a), and Lerg (3g, 8a).
Just a note...Tangradi scored 3 and added 3 assists in only 7 games against the Bears.
The Pens have had a very similar lineup and has gotten production from all of them against the Bears this season.
Hershey on the other hand has seen many different players make appearances. But there has been some consistency as well as 7 players have appeared in at least 10 of the games between the teams. Although one of those players is Christian Hanson...who isn't going to play in games 1 and 2.
Hershey's anticipated lines...keep in mind that this is my interpretation based on practice sessions...are (again, players with 10+ games played in the season series are in italics):
Kyle Greentree - Ryan Potulny - Graham Mink
Boyd Kane - Jacob Micflikier - Chris Bourque
Barry Almeida - Mike Carman - Matt Pope
DJ King - Andrew Carroll - Garrett Mitchell
Hershey does not have the scoring balance of the Pens though. Only 8 of the above players have scored a goal against the Pens in 2011-12 and only 3 of them (Greentree, Micflikier, and Potulny) have 3 or more goals. And Greentree got 2 of his in the last game between the teams.
Leading scorers in the series (among forwards) are Bourque (2g, 10a) and Potulny (6g, 6a). Kane, Micflikier, and Greentree all have 6 points.
Just a note...Aucoin had 2 goals and 5 assists in 8 games and Eakin had 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games this season. Should they return.
Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.
Scoring Margin:
This is a bit different than the season series between the teams which saw Wilkes-Barre play much better in the 2nd period and Hershey was actually better in the 3rd than their season overall.
What to take from this...minimal...but keep it in mind if/when the Bears jump out to a first period lead. They do that often and many times fail to hold on.
Special Teams:
The first two columns are overall for the season. Last 2 are for the season series.
The Bears had the #1 ranked power play during the season and their penalty kill was #4. The Pens had the #10 power play and #22 penalty kill.
So you would think that the Bears would have a large advantage here...right? Well...check out the numbers for the last 10 games:
Of late the Pens have been very good both a man up and a man down. In fact, it gets even better for the Pens. On home ice (which they get 3 times, if necessary, this series) they have faced 22 short handed situations over the past 5 home games...they have killed off 21 of them. That's 95.5% kill rate. Pretty good.
More bad news for the Bears? They are only scoring on 16% of their power plays at home in the last 5 home games and are allowing power play goals on 25% of the allowed chances on the road in their last 5 road games.
Obviously you can throw many of these numbers out the window when the goalie situation calms down in Hershey and (if) guys like Aucoin return from Washington.
But it is something to keep in mind.
Record When Scoring First:
Nobody scored the first goal more than Hershey this season. And no one had more losses (including SO and OT) after doing so than the Bears. Wilkes-Barre, meanwhile, was top 5 in winning the games where they scored the first goal.
In the season series the Pens scored the first goal 5 times and won 4 of those games. The Bears scored the first goal 7 times and won only 4 of those. So the season averages pretty much held up.
Home vs Road:
Here is the great equalizer for the Bears in my opinion. The Pens are simply put...not good at home. Most teams are great at home, average on the road...like the Bears. But the Pens are not. Under .500 winning percentage at home on the season and only .500 vs the Bears this season.
So it really is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in this series as far as home/road performance goes. Hershey is strongest at home, Wilkes-Barre strongest on the road. Hershey is weaker on the road, WB is weaker at home.
I honestly think that this helps the Bears more than anything else. Knowing that they can win in their building will definitely help heading into the series.
Will it be the difference? Maybe.
I am not a journalist and don't have to keep a subjective view. I am picking the Bears in 4. And here is why...
The Caps will lose 2 of their next 3 and will be eliminated from the NHL playoffs by the end of the day on Sunday. This is not necessarily what I want (I am rooting for the Caps every second), but without Nicky Backstrom tonight and with the Bruins capitalizing more often on the Caps defensive and goaltending lapses, I don't see this series going 7 games. And I don't see the Caps winning it.
So, Hershey would split the games in weekend with Jacob Micflikier playing 2nd line center (definite offensive improvement over what the other options have been) and then Aucoin and Eakin will return for games 3, 4, and if necessary, 5.
Earlier this week I said that Hershey's biggest problem was at 2nd line center...not anymore in my opinion. The last time Hershey had a offensively gifted 2nd line center...the Bears won 7 straight.
Now, if the Caps at least force a game 7 or should they win the series outright, I think the Bears would need the 5th game just to have a chance at the series.
The Bears are a much better team then they have been the past couple of weeks. They will show it in round 1.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!
Typically in sports, questions about teams are answered during the regular season. Unfortunately, in minor league sports, things don't always work out the way they are expected to. With recalls, loans, and trades, sometimes teams never get 'answers'.
At the beginning of the season the Bears looked like a legitimate Calder Cup contender. They had 2 goalies who would start for most teams, a defense that, while not exceptional, was definitely strong enough, and an offense that most considered the best in the league.
Now, the Bears have two goalies that have combined for 7 starts in the AHL this season. Those 7 starts have resulted in 7 losses by the way.
The offense has been decimated by recalls and injuries the past month or so. Keith Aucoin and Cody Eakin remain on recall to Washington and it is unlikely that either will be back until at least game 3 next Wednesday night...if then. Young Eakin hasn't been in the Caps lineup so far this postseason so the option is there to send him back to Hershey for the playoffs. However, I think that is unlikely.
In addition to those two, Jacob Micflikier hasn't played since March 9 and Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Graham Mink have missed games the past few weeks with injuries. Ryan Potulny has also been banged up in some games and hasn't been practicing 100% of the time either. And Christian Hanson was injured in a game on February 18 and I don't believe he has done anything since then.
The Bears roster of late has looked more like a college team than an AHL team as a number of players were signed to amateur tryout agreements and were given a rare opportunity at playing time with meaningful games left to play. Some of the guys have looked good...others have struggled.
The good news is that the players in Hershey seem to be getting healthy and fewer of the college guys are expected to play meaningful minutes in the postseason. Micflikier has practiced recently and King, Mink, and Kane all played in games this past weekend. Hanson is another story, but apparently a return has not been ruled out. As of Tuesday, he is officially out for games 1 and 2...anything after that is a guess I would imagine.
So the question is...are the Bears good enough to challenge for their 12th Calder Cup this spring?
As it stands now...no. The roster as of right now is definitely not good enough.
How about when all the players in Hershey are healthy and a goalie returns from Washington?
Still...no.
I think the Bears can give the Baby Pens a run with the roster they have now. As long as they get healthy and a goalie returns.
But you can't convince me that they will get through round 2 without reinforcements from Washington.
That isn't happening until game 3 at best. So let's not get ahead of ourselves. The immediate concern is the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. The first round, best of 5 (still think that is stupid) series begins this Friday. In case you haven't seen it, here is the schedule:
- Game 1 - Friday, April 20 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
- Game 2 - Saturday, April 21 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
- Game 3 - Wednesday, April 25 - 7:00 - in Hershey
- Game 4 - Friday, April 27 - 7:00 - in Hershey (if necessary)
- Game 5 - Saturday, April 28 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre (if necessary)
It was a pretty even series too. 4 of the games went to extra time and 9 of the games were decided by 2 goals or less, with 6 being decided by 1 goal.
Both teams scored 38 goals, 3.2 per game. Scoring was higher in Hershey than in Wilkes-Barre but again scoring was even...the Pens scored 22 to Hershey's 21 while at Giant Center, but the Bears scored 17 to the Pens 16 in Wilkes-Barre.
So now the differences:
Hershey was the stronger team in the first period...outscoring the Pens by 5 overall (2 in Hershey, 3 in WB). But the Penguins were the stronger team in the second period...outscoring the Bears by 4 (all in Hershey). The third period was pretty even with 14 Bears goals to 15 Wilkes-Barre goals....both teams were better on their home ice in the third period.
And special teams was definitely different. Hershey converted on 31% of their power plays on home ice but only 17.1% on the road. Wilkes-Barre only went 11.1% at Giant Center and a slightly better 17.6% on home ice.
That's the season series in a nutshell. It was closer than it felt because of Wilkes-Barre's domination the past couple of seasons. Up until February 5 the Bears hadn't beaten the Pens in Hershey in multiple seasons. Then they won the last 2 home games against the Pens including a 5-1 beating on February 12 (after Aucoin's recall).
Let's dig a little deeper and figure out which team has the upper hand going into the series:
Goaltending
Wilkes-Barre has their top 2 goalies ready to go. Scott Munroe went 19-10-3 on the season with a 2.52 goals against average and a save percentage of .907. Brad Thiessen went 23-15-2 with a 2.82 gaa and .887 save percentage.Thiessen played in 9 of the 12 games against Hershey this season going 5-3-1 with a 2.86 gaa and .884 save percentage. Pretty similar to the rest of his season. He was in goal for both of Hershey's blowout wins as well.
Munroe only played in 3 games and went 2-0-1. But his measurables were worse then Thiessen's...3.48 gaa and .878 save percentage.
The expectation is that Thiessen will get the first chance, but who knows for sure.
In Hershey things are a little bit of a question mark. Obviously. But we aren't going to consider anything except for Dany Sabourin and Braden Holtby. Neuvy practiced in full yesterday so there is a good chance he will be ready to back up Holtby tonight against the Bruins which would allow Sabs to come back to Hershey.
Dany went 18-12-5 with a 2.76 gaa and .909 save percentage on the season. Unfortunately he was weaker against the Pens...6 games played, 5 started...4 of those were losses (one in a shootout) and only one was a win...that was the first game of the season. His measurables? 4.07 gaa with a .855 gaa.
Now, Dany has been better of late. In March and April he was 8-3-2 with a 2.17 gaa and .926 save percentage. Those are good numbers.
Obviously Dany is capable of being the guy...but Braden has been a stud against the Pens this year.
Should Braden come back for game 3...here are his numbers against the Pens:
7 starts...4-3...gaa of 2.00 and a save percentage of .926. And he was exceptional in 3 starts in Wilkes-Barre...1.44 gaa and a save percentage of .939.
Unfortunately Braden won't be in Hershey for games 1 and 2...at least. So...
Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.
Defense
Defense is such a hard thing to judge. They have so much influence over the goaltending numbers and yet, there is really no way to truly judge a defenseman at this level without looking at every single game and every single shift.Wilkes-Barre is expected to run with a group of defensemen that looks like this: Alexadre Picard, Robert Bortuzzo, Cody Wild, Alex Grant, Joey Mormina, and Philip Samuelsson. Simon Despres would be in the lineup but he was just recalled to Pittsburgh and may or may not be back.
Combined those 6 players (not counting Despres) played 47 games against the Bears this year, scored 4 goals, added 11 assists, and finished a combined +2. Individually, Alex Grant was the best with a +7 rating and 6 assists in 9 games against the Bears this season. Bortuzzo played in only 6 games and finished with 1 assist and a -3 rating.
There isn't an offensive stud among them and the Pens finished the season middle of the pack (15th) in goals against per game. An average group I believe.
Hershey is a different story. We are going to look at the Bears top 5 defenseman as those are definitive. Patrick McNeill, Kevin Marshall, Sean Collins, Julien Brouillette, and Tomas Kundratek. The 6th will probably be Cameron Schilling, but I could see Patrick Wellar get a chance as well.
Looking at the top 5 though...47 games played against the Pens...8 goals, 13 assists and a combined +1 rating. McNeill is actually the teams 3rd leading scorer against the Pens this year with 1 goal and 9 assists in 12 games. But he was a -6 and 8 of those points were on the power play...which tend to shrink in the playoffs.
Kundratek was pretty solid as well with 4 goals and a +6 rating in 8 games against the Pens in 2011-12. Wellar, should he get a jersey, was a +3 with 2 assists as well so he did well.
Overall, the Bears defense...I think...is better than Wilkes-Barre's. Especially when you consider the more aggressive system in place that calls for the defensemen to pinch more often.
Advantage...Hershey.
Forwards
The Baby Pens leading scorer on the season was Ben Street who had 27 goals and 30 assists and averaged .80 points per game. The Bears had 5 players (including Aucoin) who averaged .88 or better per game. So keep that in mind when looking at the numbers below...Hershey is a bit more top heavy than the Pens.Wilkes-Barre saw 9 different forwards play in 10 or more games against the Bears this season. All 9 of them are expected to get jersey's during the playoffs as well. The anticipated line combinations for the Pens are (the names listed in italics are the 9 who played in 10+ against Hershey):
Nick Petersen - Ben Street - Geoff Walker
Bryan Lerg - Cal O’Reilly - Paul Thompson
Jason Williams - Brian Gibbons - Colin McDonald
Ryan Craig - Zach Sill - Brandon DeFazio
Eric Tangradi is a candidate to return should the big Pens get eliminated this weekend, but he surely won't be in the lineup for game 1.
11 of the 12 players mentioned above scored at least one goal against the Bears this season. Only Cal O'Reilly, who only played 1 game against the Bears this season, didn't score.
No player had more than 3 goals but 7 of the 12 had 3 goals (Peterson, Street, McDonald, Walker, Williams, Lerg, DeFazio).
The leading scorers against the Bears were Street (3g, 8a), McDonald (3g, 7a), and Lerg (3g, 8a).
Just a note...Tangradi scored 3 and added 3 assists in only 7 games against the Bears.
The Pens have had a very similar lineup and has gotten production from all of them against the Bears this season.
Hershey on the other hand has seen many different players make appearances. But there has been some consistency as well as 7 players have appeared in at least 10 of the games between the teams. Although one of those players is Christian Hanson...who isn't going to play in games 1 and 2.
Hershey's anticipated lines...keep in mind that this is my interpretation based on practice sessions...are (again, players with 10+ games played in the season series are in italics):
Kyle Greentree - Ryan Potulny - Graham Mink
Boyd Kane - Jacob Micflikier - Chris Bourque
Barry Almeida - Mike Carman - Matt Pope
DJ King - Andrew Carroll - Garrett Mitchell
Hershey does not have the scoring balance of the Pens though. Only 8 of the above players have scored a goal against the Pens in 2011-12 and only 3 of them (Greentree, Micflikier, and Potulny) have 3 or more goals. And Greentree got 2 of his in the last game between the teams.
Leading scorers in the series (among forwards) are Bourque (2g, 10a) and Potulny (6g, 6a). Kane, Micflikier, and Greentree all have 6 points.
Just a note...Aucoin had 2 goals and 5 assists in 8 games and Eakin had 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games this season. Should they return.
Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.
Random Stats and Thoughts
Scoring Margin:
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Overtime | Overall |
| Bears | +18 | +9 | -4 | -3 | +19 |
| Pens | +8 | +6 | +2 | +2 | +20 |
This is a bit different than the season series between the teams which saw Wilkes-Barre play much better in the 2nd period and Hershey was actually better in the 3rd than their season overall.
What to take from this...minimal...but keep it in mind if/when the Bears jump out to a first period lead. They do that often and many times fail to hold on.
Special Teams:
| Team | PP | PK | PP vs | PK vs |
| Bears | 25.5% | 84.4% | 23.4% | 85.2 |
| Pens | 18.8% | 81.6% | 14.8% | 76.6% |
The first two columns are overall for the season. Last 2 are for the season series.
The Bears had the #1 ranked power play during the season and their penalty kill was #4. The Pens had the #10 power play and #22 penalty kill.
So you would think that the Bears would have a large advantage here...right? Well...check out the numbers for the last 10 games:
| Team | PP | PK |
| Bears | 20.5% | 80.5% |
| Pens | 20.9% | 88.4% |
Of late the Pens have been very good both a man up and a man down. In fact, it gets even better for the Pens. On home ice (which they get 3 times, if necessary, this series) they have faced 22 short handed situations over the past 5 home games...they have killed off 21 of them. That's 95.5% kill rate. Pretty good.
More bad news for the Bears? They are only scoring on 16% of their power plays at home in the last 5 home games and are allowing power play goals on 25% of the allowed chances on the road in their last 5 road games.
Obviously you can throw many of these numbers out the window when the goalie situation calms down in Hershey and (if) guys like Aucoin return from Washington.
But it is something to keep in mind.
Record When Scoring First:
| Team | # FG | Record | Win % |
| Bears | 45 | 24-12-4-5 | .533 |
| Pens | 39 | 29-7-1-2 | .744 |
Nobody scored the first goal more than Hershey this season. And no one had more losses (including SO and OT) after doing so than the Bears. Wilkes-Barre, meanwhile, was top 5 in winning the games where they scored the first goal.
In the season series the Pens scored the first goal 5 times and won 4 of those games. The Bears scored the first goal 7 times and won only 4 of those. So the season averages pretty much held up.
Home vs Road:
| Team | Home | Road | Home Vs | Road Vs |
| Bears | 20-11-2-5 | 18-15-2-3 | 2-2-1-1 | 3-3-0-0 |
| Pens | 18-16-2-2 | 26-9-0-3 | 3-2-0-1 | 4-1-0-1 |
Here is the great equalizer for the Bears in my opinion. The Pens are simply put...not good at home. Most teams are great at home, average on the road...like the Bears. But the Pens are not. Under .500 winning percentage at home on the season and only .500 vs the Bears this season.
So it really is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in this series as far as home/road performance goes. Hershey is strongest at home, Wilkes-Barre strongest on the road. Hershey is weaker on the road, WB is weaker at home.
I honestly think that this helps the Bears more than anything else. Knowing that they can win in their building will definitely help heading into the series.
Will it be the difference? Maybe.
My Pick
Tim Leone is a true journalist so he has to keep a somewhat subjective view of the team and the league. He picked the Pens to beat the Bears in 5 games.I am not a journalist and don't have to keep a subjective view. I am picking the Bears in 4. And here is why...
The Caps will lose 2 of their next 3 and will be eliminated from the NHL playoffs by the end of the day on Sunday. This is not necessarily what I want (I am rooting for the Caps every second), but without Nicky Backstrom tonight and with the Bruins capitalizing more often on the Caps defensive and goaltending lapses, I don't see this series going 7 games. And I don't see the Caps winning it.
So, Hershey would split the games in weekend with Jacob Micflikier playing 2nd line center (definite offensive improvement over what the other options have been) and then Aucoin and Eakin will return for games 3, 4, and if necessary, 5.
Earlier this week I said that Hershey's biggest problem was at 2nd line center...not anymore in my opinion. The last time Hershey had a offensively gifted 2nd line center...the Bears won 7 straight.
Now, if the Caps at least force a game 7 or should they win the series outright, I think the Bears would need the 5th game just to have a chance at the series.
The Bears are a much better team then they have been the past couple of weeks. They will show it in round 1.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!
Bears drop game 1
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3 shots in the first period. That's what the Bears managed last night in Wilkes-Barre.
Down 2-0 entering the third and the Bears managed.....5 more.
Combining the second period you get a 20 shot total for the Bears.
You aren't going to win many games with those kinds of shot totals. The fact that the Penguins didn't allow many shots probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise...they finished #1 in the AHL in shots allowed per game.
But this is the playoffs. Shots are going to be hard to come by and you have to make the most of them. The Bears didn't do that last night as they went 0-3 on the powerplay and based on Scott Stuccio's call I never got the feeling that the Bears were even threatening the Pens in the offensive end.
It was the type of performance you would expect from a team riding an 8-game losing streak...not from one that hopes to play late into Spring.
The return to the lineup of Cody Eakin and Jacob Micflikier has given every Bears fan hope that they can win some games and move onto the next round. It didn't happen last night, but maybe that was to be expected as guys were out of the lineup for a little while and it takes a little time to re-adjust. Tim Leone said that after the first 30 minutes the Bears played better...so maybe that is a good omen.
And they are saying the right things...
First things first...the Bears need to get more than 20 shots on goal. They finished the regular season averaging a little over 30 per game. And they were #2 in the AHL in shooting percentage at 10.3%. So if they get 30 shots a game...they should get 3 goals.
That would have been good enough to more than likely force overtime and then who knows.
But the shots total are only the first stat that Hershey needs to change.
The Bears and Baby Pens have played 5 times previously in the Calder Cup playoffs....the winner of game 1 has won each of those.
It's time for the Bears to keep that streak at 5.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Down 2-0 entering the third and the Bears managed.....5 more.
Combining the second period you get a 20 shot total for the Bears.
You aren't going to win many games with those kinds of shot totals. The fact that the Penguins didn't allow many shots probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise...they finished #1 in the AHL in shots allowed per game.
But this is the playoffs. Shots are going to be hard to come by and you have to make the most of them. The Bears didn't do that last night as they went 0-3 on the powerplay and based on Scott Stuccio's call I never got the feeling that the Bears were even threatening the Pens in the offensive end.
It was the type of performance you would expect from a team riding an 8-game losing streak...not from one that hopes to play late into Spring.
The return to the lineup of Cody Eakin and Jacob Micflikier has given every Bears fan hope that they can win some games and move onto the next round. It didn't happen last night, but maybe that was to be expected as guys were out of the lineup for a little while and it takes a little time to re-adjust. Tim Leone said that after the first 30 minutes the Bears played better...so maybe that is a good omen.
And they are saying the right things...
Hopefully game 2 is different. Game 2 NEEDS to be different.“We can’t sit back and wait for them to kind of dictate how the play is going to go,” Bears defenseman Sean Collins said. “We have to be the ones dictating the play. Once we started playing the right way and doing the right things, keeping things simple, getting pucks deep, then we started putting some pressure on them.”
First things first...the Bears need to get more than 20 shots on goal. They finished the regular season averaging a little over 30 per game. And they were #2 in the AHL in shooting percentage at 10.3%. So if they get 30 shots a game...they should get 3 goals.
That would have been good enough to more than likely force overtime and then who knows.
But the shots total are only the first stat that Hershey needs to change.
The Bears and Baby Pens have played 5 times previously in the Calder Cup playoffs....the winner of game 1 has won each of those.
It's time for the Bears to keep that streak at 5.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Bears head to game 3 with no room for error
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I am not sure what to say about the series so far. Friday morning I was relatively confident that the Bears could win the series. They were healthier and getting help from Washington leading into game 1.
Then Wilkes-Barre came out and dominated the first period and the Bears found themselves trying to come from behind.
Saturday morning I was still confident that Hershey could earn a split in Wilkes-Barre (which is all I expected from the start), but definitely less confident than I was on Friday.
And then I turned the game on and listened as the game went to 3-0 about 12 minutes into the first period. I turned off the internet broadcast at that point so I didn't hear the 4th goal...or the 5th, 6th, or 7th either.
So far the Bears have scored 3 goals to the Pens 10. Call me crazy, but I don't think the Bears will get it done with numbers like that.
This morning, I am even less confident in the Bears ability to win this series as I was Saturday morning. I would imagine there are many of you that feel the same way.
And I am not going to lie to you...there aren't many positives to take away from the two games in Wilkes-Barre.
Special teams...the Bears are 0-7 on the power play while the Pens are 4-11. That's a 36.4% conversion rate for anyone keeping track at home.
Shots...Hershey has managed 36 shots...total. The Pens have a much more normal 56 in two games.
Goals...we already talked about that.
Honestly, there are only 2 positives or maybe more accurately, 2 possible bright spots for the Bears as they head into game 3.
One...things can't get any worse. Hershey has sustained little offense and hasn't been able to slow down the Pens at all.
Two...the Caps are headed to a game 7. Should they lose on Wednesday and the Bears win then Hershey would likely see reinforcements for game 4 on Friday.
But the Bears have to win game 3 first. And they aren't alone. 6 of the AHL's first round series have started off 2-0. Two of those series have played their 3rd game with Connecticut winning and sweeping Bridgeport out of the playoffs and Houston pulling out a game 3 win to make their series 2-1 with two to play.
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Cody Eakin and Jacob Micflikier hadn't played in weeks and Dany Sabourin hadn't played in a while either. Consider too that numerous Bears, including Chris Bourque and Ryan Potulny, had at least taken a maintenance day within the week to rest.
Some Bears were rusty while others were banged up. Had this been during the regular season we likely would have written it off as a couple games to get their legs back.
Maybe when the Bears come out on Wednesday they will be healthier and more ready to play. The players that haven't played have no gotten two games under their belt and will likely have a few more practices coming up. For those Bears who have been banged up, they now have a few days to rest up before the next game.
Can the Bears do it? Can they come out on Wednesday with a renewed energy and focus? Can they extend the series and put some doubt in the minds of Pens players?
I think they can. One game at a time. Win on Wednesday. That's it...nothing else to consider.
Come on out on Wednesday and cheer on the Bears. There will surely be plenty of Pens fans in attendance so let's make sure they are seen and not heard.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Then Wilkes-Barre came out and dominated the first period and the Bears found themselves trying to come from behind.
Saturday morning I was still confident that Hershey could earn a split in Wilkes-Barre (which is all I expected from the start), but definitely less confident than I was on Friday.
And then I turned the game on and listened as the game went to 3-0 about 12 minutes into the first period. I turned off the internet broadcast at that point so I didn't hear the 4th goal...or the 5th, 6th, or 7th either.
So far the Bears have scored 3 goals to the Pens 10. Call me crazy, but I don't think the Bears will get it done with numbers like that.
This morning, I am even less confident in the Bears ability to win this series as I was Saturday morning. I would imagine there are many of you that feel the same way.
And I am not going to lie to you...there aren't many positives to take away from the two games in Wilkes-Barre.
Special teams...the Bears are 0-7 on the power play while the Pens are 4-11. That's a 36.4% conversion rate for anyone keeping track at home.
Shots...Hershey has managed 36 shots...total. The Pens have a much more normal 56 in two games.
Goals...we already talked about that.
Honestly, there are only 2 positives or maybe more accurately, 2 possible bright spots for the Bears as they head into game 3.
One...things can't get any worse. Hershey has sustained little offense and hasn't been able to slow down the Pens at all.
Two...the Caps are headed to a game 7. Should they lose on Wednesday and the Bears win then Hershey would likely see reinforcements for game 4 on Friday.
But the Bears have to win game 3 first. And they aren't alone. 6 of the AHL's first round series have started off 2-0. Two of those series have played their 3rd game with Connecticut winning and sweeping Bridgeport out of the playoffs and Houston pulling out a game 3 win to make their series 2-1 with two to play.
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Cody Eakin and Jacob Micflikier hadn't played in weeks and Dany Sabourin hadn't played in a while either. Consider too that numerous Bears, including Chris Bourque and Ryan Potulny, had at least taken a maintenance day within the week to rest.
Some Bears were rusty while others were banged up. Had this been during the regular season we likely would have written it off as a couple games to get their legs back.
Maybe when the Bears come out on Wednesday they will be healthier and more ready to play. The players that haven't played have no gotten two games under their belt and will likely have a few more practices coming up. For those Bears who have been banged up, they now have a few days to rest up before the next game.
Can the Bears do it? Can they come out on Wednesday with a renewed energy and focus? Can they extend the series and put some doubt in the minds of Pens players?
I think they can. One game at a time. Win on Wednesday. That's it...nothing else to consider.
Come on out on Wednesday and cheer on the Bears. There will surely be plenty of Pens fans in attendance so let's make sure they are seen and not heard.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Bears win in OT...Game 4 on Friday
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The Bears live to play another day. Ryan Potulny's goal, 2:57 into overtime, finished off an up and down game for the Bears as they won for the first time March 28.
Hershey skated to a 2-0 lead after the first period on goals by DJ King and Cameron Schilling. But Wilkes-Barre would get one back in the 2nd and the tying goal about 6 minutes into the 3rd period to make it a 2-2 game.
The teams traded goals over the final 7 minutes of the 3rd period to force overtime where the Bears actually outshot the Pens 4-0 and picked up the win.
Yes it was a win. Yes I am excited for game 4 on Friday night.
But if the Bears intend to make this a real series and go back to Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, this needs to be the first step in the process.
Wilkes-Barre dominated the first few minutes of the game and it was beginning to look a lot like games 1 and 2 sounded. Hershey couldn't get the puck out of their zone and had to block multiple shots and get saves from Dany Sabourin to stay even on the scoreboard.
The difference between the first 2 games of the series and last night? Hershey scored first. You could see the confidence grow when they got that goal and took their first lead of the series. They started making crisper passes and seemed calmer with the puck.
Unfortunately the Bears needed to readjust each period. At the start of the 2nd and 3rd periods it was very similar. Wilkes-Barre controlled the puck and Hershey couldn't get it out. Poor clear attempts and hasty moves with the puck led to countless turnovers in their own end.
In the 3rd period it cost them as Wilkes-Barre only left the offensive zone a couple of times in the first 6 minutes and picked up the tying goal at the end of that.
But the Bears used the confidence they showed after scoring their first goal after each Wilkes-Barre tally and didn't let the game get away from them.
It was an impressive performance considering the outcome of games 1 and 2.
There is still work to be done though.
Today at practice I would have Mike Carman, Ryan Potulny, Andrew Carroll, and Cody Eakin working on faceoffs against each other for the entire practice.
That was some of the worst faceoff performance I can remember seeing. The AHL does not track faceoff stats so there is no telling how bad it really was but I would say Hershey won no more than 25% of the draws and that might be a high estimate.
Hershey overcame the problem last night thanks to a ton of blocked shots and Dany making some key saves...but if they continue to perform that poorly then they will struggle to compete in the coming game(s).
The other thing I was seeing involved the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton team speed. After games 1 and 2 and even during the game last night I heard how much fast the Pens are then the Bears.
I didn't see it. Speed in sports is many times overrated.
The reason the Pens appear faster than Hershey is because they are playing better positionally and executing their schemes better than the Bears are. If you are lining up and rotating properly every time then you are going to look so much faster than the other team because you are always where the loose pucks are.
And that's what happened for long stretches last night. Wilkes-Barre would get the pucks in the zone and then move it with precision and confidence and would keep the puck in the zone for minutes at a time.
Very rarely did you see the Pens make poor clearing passes or not have someone in the spot where a teammate expected them to be.
Hershey? How many times did you see clearing attempts blocked along the Bears or passes that were thrown to empty space as someone was out of position?
I saw it quite a bit. Wilkes-Barre's precision made the Bears look extremely disorganized. Maybe the Bears weren't as disorganized as they looked at times...maybe the Pens were just that efficient. But any way you look at, the Bears need to improve before tomorrow night.
Overall it was a good win. An important win (obviously).
But there is still improvements to be made and work to be done. Wilkes-Barre's goaltending is not going to win them this or any series. Hershey can (and did last night) take advantage of that...scoring 4 goals on only 22 shots.
The Bears CAN win this series. They just need to slow the game down (mentally) and improve their execution.
Game 3 was a good first step. Game 4 needs to go a step further.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Hershey skated to a 2-0 lead after the first period on goals by DJ King and Cameron Schilling. But Wilkes-Barre would get one back in the 2nd and the tying goal about 6 minutes into the 3rd period to make it a 2-2 game.
The teams traded goals over the final 7 minutes of the 3rd period to force overtime where the Bears actually outshot the Pens 4-0 and picked up the win.
Yes it was a win. Yes I am excited for game 4 on Friday night.
But if the Bears intend to make this a real series and go back to Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, this needs to be the first step in the process.
Wilkes-Barre dominated the first few minutes of the game and it was beginning to look a lot like games 1 and 2 sounded. Hershey couldn't get the puck out of their zone and had to block multiple shots and get saves from Dany Sabourin to stay even on the scoreboard.
The difference between the first 2 games of the series and last night? Hershey scored first. You could see the confidence grow when they got that goal and took their first lead of the series. They started making crisper passes and seemed calmer with the puck.
Unfortunately the Bears needed to readjust each period. At the start of the 2nd and 3rd periods it was very similar. Wilkes-Barre controlled the puck and Hershey couldn't get it out. Poor clear attempts and hasty moves with the puck led to countless turnovers in their own end.
In the 3rd period it cost them as Wilkes-Barre only left the offensive zone a couple of times in the first 6 minutes and picked up the tying goal at the end of that.
But the Bears used the confidence they showed after scoring their first goal after each Wilkes-Barre tally and didn't let the game get away from them.
It was an impressive performance considering the outcome of games 1 and 2.
There is still work to be done though.
Today at practice I would have Mike Carman, Ryan Potulny, Andrew Carroll, and Cody Eakin working on faceoffs against each other for the entire practice.
That was some of the worst faceoff performance I can remember seeing. The AHL does not track faceoff stats so there is no telling how bad it really was but I would say Hershey won no more than 25% of the draws and that might be a high estimate.
Hershey overcame the problem last night thanks to a ton of blocked shots and Dany making some key saves...but if they continue to perform that poorly then they will struggle to compete in the coming game(s).
The other thing I was seeing involved the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton team speed. After games 1 and 2 and even during the game last night I heard how much fast the Pens are then the Bears.
I didn't see it. Speed in sports is many times overrated.
The reason the Pens appear faster than Hershey is because they are playing better positionally and executing their schemes better than the Bears are. If you are lining up and rotating properly every time then you are going to look so much faster than the other team because you are always where the loose pucks are.
And that's what happened for long stretches last night. Wilkes-Barre would get the pucks in the zone and then move it with precision and confidence and would keep the puck in the zone for minutes at a time.
Very rarely did you see the Pens make poor clearing passes or not have someone in the spot where a teammate expected them to be.
Hershey? How many times did you see clearing attempts blocked along the Bears or passes that were thrown to empty space as someone was out of position?
I saw it quite a bit. Wilkes-Barre's precision made the Bears look extremely disorganized. Maybe the Bears weren't as disorganized as they looked at times...maybe the Pens were just that efficient. But any way you look at, the Bears need to improve before tomorrow night.
Overall it was a good win. An important win (obviously). But there is still improvements to be made and work to be done. Wilkes-Barre's goaltending is not going to win them this or any series. Hershey can (and did last night) take advantage of that...scoring 4 goals on only 22 shots.
The Bears CAN win this series. They just need to slow the game down (mentally) and improve their execution.
Game 3 was a good first step. Game 4 needs to go a step further.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Bears win...force Game 5 tonight
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I had this whole post written up about last nights game...but then I realized...it's over. It doesn't matter anymore. One game is left to decide who moves on and who waits until next season.
I know this is NHL footage...but the idea is still the same:
And then there is this one...remember, the Bears are the underdogs tonight...but that doesn't mean anything until the game is done:
And finally...something more from OUR Hershey Bears...a couple of years ago the Bears backs were against the wall in the Calder Cup Finals. Down 2 games to none, headed for Texas. After a couple of victories in games 3 and 4 the Bears needed one more to avoid having to win two at home:
If you are going up to the game tonight...be loud. Many of us will be listening or watching on AHLLive and we want to hear Bears nation.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
I know this is NHL footage...but the idea is still the same:
And then there is this one...remember, the Bears are the underdogs tonight...but that doesn't mean anything until the game is done:
And finally...something more from OUR Hershey Bears...a couple of years ago the Bears backs were against the wall in the Calder Cup Finals. Down 2 games to none, headed for Texas. After a couple of victories in games 3 and 4 the Bears needed one more to avoid having to win two at home:
If you are going up to the game tonight...be loud. Many of us will be listening or watching on AHLLive and we want to hear Bears nation.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
2011-12 season is over
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It's been a few days now since 7 seconds in the 2nd period ultimately ended the Bears 2011-12 season. The Baby Pens scored 2 goals in 7 seconds, the 2nd on a freak bounce that went Wilkes-Barre's way, to take a 2-0 lead in the deciding game 5 of the series. Hershey would respond well in the 3rd period and make it 2-1, but they never got the tying goal.
So a season that started out with high aspirations ends in the first round of the playoffs. Tim Leone's piece says that the Bears lost 162 man games to injury this season and used 42 different players during the season. Considering a typical roster consists of 23-25 players, 42 is a lot. But considering the constant fluctuation of AHL rosters it isn't really that much.
Unfortunately for the Bears the players that were missed to injury and recall were critical pieces to the team puzzle.
But at the end of the day it doesn't matter. The season is over and whatever reason you want to give, it doesn't change any of it.
The focus shifts to the 2012-13 season which brings immediate uncertainty as the current affiliation with the Capitals is set to expire this summer. I think the general opinion is that the affiliation will be extended as it makes sense for both parties...but until the paperwork is completed and signed, you never know.
In addition, the contracts for the Bears coaching staff, Mark French and Troy Mann, have expired. Here is where I think you need to make a change. I am not a fan of French's and think that his strategic skills could use some improving.
But at the same time he has won a lot of games the past 2 seasons despite dealing with a bunch of injuries and recalls in each season. So maybe he deserves another chance. When he had a fully healthy team he won 60 games and a Calder Cup.
Still, I won't be upset if they go a different way...but I can definitely see his contract being extended.
This decision is not made by Doug Yingst exclusively though. I am sure he gets a say, but the Capitals are also involved in this decision and they may desire to bring in a coach with a similar coaching style to whomever is behind the bench in Washington.
We will find out sometime after the Caps postseason run is over...which hopefully doesn't end until June!
As for the players that will be and won't be back for 2012-13...below are a few lists detailing some information. Keep in mind that any player under contract with Washington will not be in Hershey next season should the affiliation not be extended.
Players Under Contract With Washington for 2012-13:
Ryan Potulny
Cody Eakin
Garrett Mitchell
Mattias Sjogren
Patrick McNeill
Cameran Schilling
Brett Flemming
Tomas Kundratek
Philipp Grubauer
Brandon Anderson
Players Under Contract With Hershey for 2012-13:
David Civitarese
Barry Almeida
TJ Syner
Matt Pope
Julian Brouillette
Patrick Wellar
Washington Capitals Restricted Free Agents:
Mike Carman
Kevin Marshall
Not included on the above lists but also under contract for 2012-13 are Braden Holtby and Dmitry Orlov. I really doubt either player spends a minute in Hershey next season so for the purposes of this post I don't feel it is necessary to talk about them.
Let's assume that the Caps and Bears extend their affiliation agreement. If that happens I think all of the players listed above will be in Hershey's training camp come September. I don't see the Caps not tendering offers to Carman and Marshall and every other player is already under contract.
Now, you will notice that there are some big names not listed there. Keith Aucoin, Chris Bourque, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, Dany Sabourin, and plenty more.
I fully expect the Bears to sign a few of either these guys or players like them. Hershey is always willing to spend some money of free agents and I don't expect the 75th anniversary season to be any different.
Aucoin, to me, is a lock to return. The question is...does he go to Washington or Hershey? Based on the minutes that Dale Hunter is giving him in the playoffs right now it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him spend at least parts of the season in Washington.
The Bears will generally pay 1 or 2 players a decent amount of money to play in Hershey. The advantage this year is that Ryan Potulny's contract is a 1-way deal meaning the Caps will pay him to play in Hershey should he be reassigned during the season. That will free up some money for the Bears to spend on additional free agents.
I could obviously speculate for hours on what players the Bears will bring back or look at, but there would not be a science to any of it and it would all just be speculation and rumor starting. I will say two things though...
1. The defense is pretty much set. With McNeill, Schilling, Kundratek, Wellar, Brouillette, and Flemming back and Marshall likely to be back you have your top 7 defensemen. Patty McNeill will be considered a veteran exempt next season as well so you have a veteran presence already on the roster. Don't expect too many signings along the blueline.
2. They need a scorer. One of the biggest problems this entire season was that there were too many passers on the roster and not enough shooters. Guys were always looking to make the extra pass instead of taking an open shot. Not saying guys couldn't shoot or score, but most of the guys were more interested in setting up their linemates than shooting themselves...or at least that's how it felt. Maybe rookie Stanislav Galiev will help in that regard, but I think the Bears will go looking for a proven goal scorer in free agency. Someone you look to in big games to come up with the big goals...such as a huge overtime goal in game 5 of the Calder Cup Finals. Hypothetically speaking of course.
For the second season in a row the offseason is going to be long. Few answers about the roster will be resolved before July and actual hockey won't be back until October. 5 full months.
I agree that we are spoiled as Bears fans...4 Calder Cup Finals in 5 years...but these long summers suck and I am okay with being spoiled. Hopefully the roster put together for next season will allow us to enjoy Bears hockey well into June 2013.
So a season that started out with high aspirations ends in the first round of the playoffs. Tim Leone's piece says that the Bears lost 162 man games to injury this season and used 42 different players during the season. Considering a typical roster consists of 23-25 players, 42 is a lot. But considering the constant fluctuation of AHL rosters it isn't really that much.
Unfortunately for the Bears the players that were missed to injury and recall were critical pieces to the team puzzle.
But at the end of the day it doesn't matter. The season is over and whatever reason you want to give, it doesn't change any of it.
The focus shifts to the 2012-13 season which brings immediate uncertainty as the current affiliation with the Capitals is set to expire this summer. I think the general opinion is that the affiliation will be extended as it makes sense for both parties...but until the paperwork is completed and signed, you never know.
In addition, the contracts for the Bears coaching staff, Mark French and Troy Mann, have expired. Here is where I think you need to make a change. I am not a fan of French's and think that his strategic skills could use some improving.
But at the same time he has won a lot of games the past 2 seasons despite dealing with a bunch of injuries and recalls in each season. So maybe he deserves another chance. When he had a fully healthy team he won 60 games and a Calder Cup.
Still, I won't be upset if they go a different way...but I can definitely see his contract being extended.
This decision is not made by Doug Yingst exclusively though. I am sure he gets a say, but the Capitals are also involved in this decision and they may desire to bring in a coach with a similar coaching style to whomever is behind the bench in Washington.
We will find out sometime after the Caps postseason run is over...which hopefully doesn't end until June!
As for the players that will be and won't be back for 2012-13...below are a few lists detailing some information. Keep in mind that any player under contract with Washington will not be in Hershey next season should the affiliation not be extended.
Players Under Contract With Washington for 2012-13:
Ryan Potulny
Cody Eakin
Garrett Mitchell
Mattias Sjogren
Patrick McNeill
Cameran Schilling
Brett Flemming
Tomas Kundratek
Philipp Grubauer
Brandon Anderson
Players Under Contract With Hershey for 2012-13:
David Civitarese
Barry Almeida
TJ Syner
Matt Pope
Julian Brouillette
Patrick Wellar
Washington Capitals Restricted Free Agents:
Mike Carman
Kevin Marshall
Not included on the above lists but also under contract for 2012-13 are Braden Holtby and Dmitry Orlov. I really doubt either player spends a minute in Hershey next season so for the purposes of this post I don't feel it is necessary to talk about them.
Let's assume that the Caps and Bears extend their affiliation agreement. If that happens I think all of the players listed above will be in Hershey's training camp come September. I don't see the Caps not tendering offers to Carman and Marshall and every other player is already under contract.
Now, you will notice that there are some big names not listed there. Keith Aucoin, Chris Bourque, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, Dany Sabourin, and plenty more.
I fully expect the Bears to sign a few of either these guys or players like them. Hershey is always willing to spend some money of free agents and I don't expect the 75th anniversary season to be any different.
Aucoin, to me, is a lock to return. The question is...does he go to Washington or Hershey? Based on the minutes that Dale Hunter is giving him in the playoffs right now it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him spend at least parts of the season in Washington.
The Bears will generally pay 1 or 2 players a decent amount of money to play in Hershey. The advantage this year is that Ryan Potulny's contract is a 1-way deal meaning the Caps will pay him to play in Hershey should he be reassigned during the season. That will free up some money for the Bears to spend on additional free agents.
I could obviously speculate for hours on what players the Bears will bring back or look at, but there would not be a science to any of it and it would all just be speculation and rumor starting. I will say two things though...
1. The defense is pretty much set. With McNeill, Schilling, Kundratek, Wellar, Brouillette, and Flemming back and Marshall likely to be back you have your top 7 defensemen. Patty McNeill will be considered a veteran exempt next season as well so you have a veteran presence already on the roster. Don't expect too many signings along the blueline.
2. They need a scorer. One of the biggest problems this entire season was that there were too many passers on the roster and not enough shooters. Guys were always looking to make the extra pass instead of taking an open shot. Not saying guys couldn't shoot or score, but most of the guys were more interested in setting up their linemates than shooting themselves...or at least that's how it felt. Maybe rookie Stanislav Galiev will help in that regard, but I think the Bears will go looking for a proven goal scorer in free agency. Someone you look to in big games to come up with the big goals...such as a huge overtime goal in game 5 of the Calder Cup Finals. Hypothetically speaking of course.
For the second season in a row the offseason is going to be long. Few answers about the roster will be resolved before July and actual hockey won't be back until October. 5 full months.
I agree that we are spoiled as Bears fans...4 Calder Cup Finals in 5 years...but these long summers suck and I am okay with being spoiled. Hopefully the roster put together for next season will allow us to enjoy Bears hockey well into June 2013.
Fantasy Football 2011: Top 5
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So apparently I have a problem. It's apparently an addiction to have completed 10 mock drafts up until this point. But one thing I have noticed in these drafts is the high amount of variability in the first round. Generally, its the same people going 1-5 and then the next 5 are the same people in varying orders however that has not been the case this year. I have seen 6 different people go #1 overall including Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Mike Vick, Jamal Charles, and even Rashard Mendenhall. That being said this is my Top 5 for the first round. Feel free to comment or debate any of these.
1. Adrian Peterson
With a decent quarterback behind him and a bunch of solid receivers AP is set up to do what he does every year.
2. Mike Vick
I know what your thinking. Dan quarterbacks are so deep this year why would you waste your number 2 pick on an injury prone QB. Here's why: Mike Vick is a play maker. He was among the league leaders in fantasy points last year even not playing every game either due to his injury or to Andy Reid. As for being injury prone, think of it this way. Everybody is injury prone. How many hits is AP gonna take this year? Who took Brady a few years ago and expected nothing to happen to him. The fact of the matter is anybody can get hurt at any time so ignore injuries unless the injury is current.
3. Arian Foster
I've got good news and I've got bad news. First the bad news. Every team is now looking for this guy on every play. He had most of his success last year early in the year when nobody was game planning for him. Now for the good news. Matt Schaub isn't getting any worse. With his ability to air it out to Andre Johnson defenses wont be able to cheat up into the box to shut down Foster or they will get burned deep. So they have a choice. Either get burned deep and then have Houston run out the clock on them or let them run initially either way Foster is going to get his touches.
4. Ray Rice
With Willis McGahee out of the picture look for rice to get all his regular touches plus extra goal line carries.
5. Chris Johnson
Tennesee has no other option but to hope that CJ can run the ball effectively.
If I have time I hope to finish out the first three rounds.
1. Adrian Peterson
With a decent quarterback behind him and a bunch of solid receivers AP is set up to do what he does every year.
2. Mike Vick
I know what your thinking. Dan quarterbacks are so deep this year why would you waste your number 2 pick on an injury prone QB. Here's why: Mike Vick is a play maker. He was among the league leaders in fantasy points last year even not playing every game either due to his injury or to Andy Reid. As for being injury prone, think of it this way. Everybody is injury prone. How many hits is AP gonna take this year? Who took Brady a few years ago and expected nothing to happen to him. The fact of the matter is anybody can get hurt at any time so ignore injuries unless the injury is current.
3. Arian Foster
I've got good news and I've got bad news. First the bad news. Every team is now looking for this guy on every play. He had most of his success last year early in the year when nobody was game planning for him. Now for the good news. Matt Schaub isn't getting any worse. With his ability to air it out to Andre Johnson defenses wont be able to cheat up into the box to shut down Foster or they will get burned deep. So they have a choice. Either get burned deep and then have Houston run out the clock on them or let them run initially either way Foster is going to get his touches.
4. Ray Rice
With Willis McGahee out of the picture look for rice to get all his regular touches plus extra goal line carries.
5. Chris Johnson
Tennesee has no other option but to hope that CJ can run the ball effectively.
If I have time I hope to finish out the first three rounds.
Kevin Wilson Gets Pissed At Radio Hosts Making Fun of IU
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Some Fox radio show call Zakk and Jack invited Kevin Wilson on to do an interview. After an intro where they left Wilson on hold for about a minute and a half Wilson went on the attack.
Listen Here
Even though Zakk and Jack went on the rip on Wilson after they kicked him off the show, many other people in the Media have defended Wilson including Dan Dachich on his radio show, SI's Stewart Mandel and Andy Staples.
Mandel via Twitter
Wilson > condescending radio jocks RT @JimmyTraina: Train wreck sports talk radio w/ Indiana coach Kevin Wilson. http://t.co/qARzwtC
Staples has a Lot of back and forth via Twitter I am only including his comments. You can follow is hole chain here
RT @JimmyTraina: Train wreck sports talk radio at its finest here w/ new Indiana football coach Kevin Wilson.
@HawkeyeNation Agreed. Don't start ripping after you hang up on the guy. Hit him with that on the air if it's that important.
I know how Kevin Wilson feels. Last year, I lit up a host off-air for doing no prep before I came on. Should have done it on-air
Not so sure. Think he endeared himself to IU fans. RT @dcvol: If you're Wilson, though, you've got to bite your tongue.
prefer these guys. http://youtu.be/ws58s9wzYsA RT @turnershow: Trudeau and his wingman absolutely brutal
@andy_grey You're underestimating the public's mistrust of the media. Pit yourself against a media member and you look like a hero
@andy_grey He got more buzz by doing what he did than if he had given a sunny, cheery interview
Some Fox radio show call Zakk and Jack invited Kevin Wilson on to do an interview. After an intro where they left Wilson on hold for about a minute and a half Wilson went on the attack.
Listen Here
Even though Zakk and Jack went on the rip on Wilson after they kicked him off the show, many other people in the Media have defended Wilson including Dan Dachich on his radio show, SI's Stewart Mandel and Andy Staples.
Mandel via Twitter
Wilson > condescending radio jocks RT @JimmyTraina: Train wreck sports talk radio w/ Indiana coach Kevin Wilson. http://t.co/qARzwtC
Staples has a Lot of back and forth via Twitter I am only including his comments. You can follow is hole chain here
RT @JimmyTraina: Train wreck sports talk radio at its finest here w/ new Indiana football coach Kevin Wilson.
@HawkeyeNation Agreed. Don't start ripping after you hang up on the guy. Hit him with that on the air if it's that important.
I know how Kevin Wilson feels. Last year, I lit up a host off-air for doing no prep before I came on. Should have done it on-air
Not so sure. Think he endeared himself to IU fans. RT @dcvol: If you're Wilson, though, you've got to bite your tongue.
prefer these guys. http://youtu.be/ws58s9wzYsA RT @turnershow: Trudeau and his wingman absolutely brutal
@andy_grey You're underestimating the public's mistrust of the media. Pit yourself against a media member and you look like a hero
@andy_grey He got more buzz by doing what he did than if he had given a sunny, cheery interview
Dear ESPN
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This is a letter to the morons at ESPN. I was watching Sports Center this morning and there was a discussion of the top 10 QB's in the NFL. Darren Woodson had 15 QB's on his board. One of the QB's was Mark Sanchez. ESPN has been riding Mark Sanchez's jock since he was drafted (he wasn't named a top 10 QB but was in the top 15). How is it that a guy who has an incredible offensive line, a great running game, great receivers, and a great tight end considered in the top 15 when he completes 54% of his passes? The guy threw for only 17 td's last year. The year before he threw for 12 tds and competed 15% of his passes. I'd honestly put him near the bottom of the league in QB's. Yet ESPN rides this guy's jock like he's actually good. HE'S NOT. HE SUCKS.
And yes, this article is about to turn into how the heck is Jay Cutler not on the list of top 15 QB's. I get it ESPN, you hate him. Dilfer created your new QBR stat, and I do actually believe this, to try to make Cutler look bad. Sacks? Really? You are going to count sacks as the QB's fault? If that's the case, at least watch the film and find some objective standard in order to tell when the sacks are the o-line's fault and when they are the QB's fault. This is how flawed ESPN's QBR stat is. Here are two stat lines:
336 Completions/555 Attempts - 3,666 yards - 60.5% completion percentage - 27 tds 26 ints (6.61 yards per attempt) 40 rushes 173 yards 1 td 4 fumbles 35 sacks 76.8 regular QB rating
261 completions / 432 Attempts - 3,274 yards - 60.4% completion percentage - 23 tds 16 ints (7.6 yards per attempt) 50 rushes 232 yards 1 td 1 fumble 52 sacks 86.3 regular QB rating
Which player is better? Well, one QB has 123 more attempts and only around 400 more passing yards and 4 more passing tds with 10 more interceptions and 3 more fumbles. Essentially QB 2 could have equaled those numbers in one game. Here is the kicker, QB 1 is rated higher in ESPN's new QBR than QB2. Who are the QB's? Well if you haven't figured it out already they are both Jay Cutler. So, ESPN wants us to believe that Jay Cutler from 2009 was better than last years Jay Cutler. Why? Because of sacks. Somehow, the 17 more sacks Cutler took last year outweighs the 13 more opportunities Cutler gave the opposing team (granted 3 of those were fumbles recovered by the Bears but a fumble is a fumble). Oh yeah, and need I mention that in ESPN's QBR Trent Dilfer has one of the highest ratings in the league the year the Ravens won the Superbowl. ESPN your QBR stat doesn't even pass the eyeball test!
Now onto whether Eli Manning is a top 5, 10, or even 15 QB. I say no. Unlike anyone of the QB's I will name that are better than him, Manning is unable to put his team on his back and win a game. Yes, he can throw a TD in the last minute to make a game 17-14. So can Kyle Orton. And that is who I'd compare Manning to as a QB. Kyle Orton. Now onto where I'd rank Eli Manning right now, and this includes players I'd take over him that are currently in the NFL.
1. Peyton Manning2. Tom Brady3. Drew Brees4. Phillip Rivers5. Aaron Rodgers6. Michael Vick7. Ben Roethlisberger8. Matt Ryan9. Tony Romo10. Matt Schaub11. Jay Cutler12. Josh Freeman13. Joe Flacco14. Carson Palmer15. Eli Manning (only because these other guys have no established themselves yet)16. Sam Bradford17. Matthew Stafford18. Matt Hasselbeck19. Kevin Kolb20. Donovan McNabb21. Kyle Orton22. David Gerrard23. Ryan Fitzpatrick24. Matt Cassel25. Colt McCoy26. Vince Young27. Chad Henne28. Rex Grossman29. Shaun Hill30. Jon Kitna31. Alex Smith32. Mark Sanchez
This was not based on any bias towards New York teams. I don't have a bias. This is an objective look at QB's I'd rather have starting on my team over Mark Sanchez and Eli Manning. ESPN, you need to hire objective reporters who don't care about their hometown team instead of these subjective morons you have on your staff. Quit sucking so much! Right now, you are the Mark Sanchez of sports reporting. Awful!
And yes, this article is about to turn into how the heck is Jay Cutler not on the list of top 15 QB's. I get it ESPN, you hate him. Dilfer created your new QBR stat, and I do actually believe this, to try to make Cutler look bad. Sacks? Really? You are going to count sacks as the QB's fault? If that's the case, at least watch the film and find some objective standard in order to tell when the sacks are the o-line's fault and when they are the QB's fault. This is how flawed ESPN's QBR stat is. Here are two stat lines:
336 Completions/555 Attempts - 3,666 yards - 60.5% completion percentage - 27 tds 26 ints (6.61 yards per attempt) 40 rushes 173 yards 1 td 4 fumbles 35 sacks 76.8 regular QB rating
261 completions / 432 Attempts - 3,274 yards - 60.4% completion percentage - 23 tds 16 ints (7.6 yards per attempt) 50 rushes 232 yards 1 td 1 fumble 52 sacks 86.3 regular QB rating
Which player is better? Well, one QB has 123 more attempts and only around 400 more passing yards and 4 more passing tds with 10 more interceptions and 3 more fumbles. Essentially QB 2 could have equaled those numbers in one game. Here is the kicker, QB 1 is rated higher in ESPN's new QBR than QB2. Who are the QB's? Well if you haven't figured it out already they are both Jay Cutler. So, ESPN wants us to believe that Jay Cutler from 2009 was better than last years Jay Cutler. Why? Because of sacks. Somehow, the 17 more sacks Cutler took last year outweighs the 13 more opportunities Cutler gave the opposing team (granted 3 of those were fumbles recovered by the Bears but a fumble is a fumble). Oh yeah, and need I mention that in ESPN's QBR Trent Dilfer has one of the highest ratings in the league the year the Ravens won the Superbowl. ESPN your QBR stat doesn't even pass the eyeball test!
Now onto whether Eli Manning is a top 5, 10, or even 15 QB. I say no. Unlike anyone of the QB's I will name that are better than him, Manning is unable to put his team on his back and win a game. Yes, he can throw a TD in the last minute to make a game 17-14. So can Kyle Orton. And that is who I'd compare Manning to as a QB. Kyle Orton. Now onto where I'd rank Eli Manning right now, and this includes players I'd take over him that are currently in the NFL.
1. Peyton Manning2. Tom Brady3. Drew Brees4. Phillip Rivers5. Aaron Rodgers6. Michael Vick7. Ben Roethlisberger8. Matt Ryan9. Tony Romo10. Matt Schaub11. Jay Cutler12. Josh Freeman13. Joe Flacco14. Carson Palmer15. Eli Manning (only because these other guys have no established themselves yet)16. Sam Bradford17. Matthew Stafford18. Matt Hasselbeck19. Kevin Kolb20. Donovan McNabb21. Kyle Orton22. David Gerrard23. Ryan Fitzpatrick24. Matt Cassel25. Colt McCoy26. Vince Young27. Chad Henne28. Rex Grossman29. Shaun Hill30. Jon Kitna31. Alex Smith32. Mark Sanchez
This was not based on any bias towards New York teams. I don't have a bias. This is an objective look at QB's I'd rather have starting on my team over Mark Sanchez and Eli Manning. ESPN, you need to hire objective reporters who don't care about their hometown team instead of these subjective morons you have on your staff. Quit sucking so much! Right now, you are the Mark Sanchez of sports reporting. Awful!
NFL Predictions
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Hola everyone! With the first games tomorrow, I figured what time is better than now for my annual NFL predictions. A little key: z - conference winner; y - bye week; x - division winner w - wildcard team. Here I go:
AFC EAST
z - 1. Patriots 14-2w - 2. Jets 10-63. Bills 7-94. Dolphins 5-11
AFC WEST
x - 1. Chargers 11-52. Broncos 7-93. Chiefs 6-104. Raiders 5-11
AFC NORTH
y - 1. Ravens 12-42. Steelers 9-73. Browns 6-104. Bengals 2-14
AFC SOUTH
x - 1. Colts 10-6w - 2. Titans 9-73. Texans 7-94. Jaguars 4-12
NFC EAST
x - 1. Eagles 11-5w - 2. Redskins 10-63. Giants 9-74. Cowboys 6-10
NFC WEST
x - 1. 49ers 9-72. Rams 8-83. Cardinals 7-94. Seahawks 4-12
NFC NORTH
z - 1. Bears 13-3w - 2. Packers 10-63. Lions 7-94. Vikings 6-10
NFC SOUTH
y - 1. Saints 12-42. Falcons 9-73. Bucs 7-94. Panthers 4-12
WILDCARD ROUND
Chargers 27 Titans 17
Colts 17 Jets 20
49ers 17 Packers 24
Eagles 31 Redskins 20
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Ravens 20 Chargers 17
Patriots 31 Jets 17
Bears 21 Packers 17
Saints 27 Eagles 34
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Patriots 21 Ravens 24
Bears 28 Eagles 20
SUPERBOWL
Bears 17 Ravens 13
There you have it: Bears win the Superbowl. But we all knew that already!
AFC EAST
z - 1. Patriots 14-2w - 2. Jets 10-63. Bills 7-94. Dolphins 5-11
AFC WEST
x - 1. Chargers 11-52. Broncos 7-93. Chiefs 6-104. Raiders 5-11
AFC NORTH
y - 1. Ravens 12-42. Steelers 9-73. Browns 6-104. Bengals 2-14
AFC SOUTH
x - 1. Colts 10-6w - 2. Titans 9-73. Texans 7-94. Jaguars 4-12
NFC EAST
x - 1. Eagles 11-5w - 2. Redskins 10-63. Giants 9-74. Cowboys 6-10
NFC WEST
x - 1. 49ers 9-72. Rams 8-83. Cardinals 7-94. Seahawks 4-12
NFC NORTH
z - 1. Bears 13-3w - 2. Packers 10-63. Lions 7-94. Vikings 6-10
NFC SOUTH
y - 1. Saints 12-42. Falcons 9-73. Bucs 7-94. Panthers 4-12
WILDCARD ROUND
Chargers 27 Titans 17
Colts 17 Jets 20
49ers 17 Packers 24
Eagles 31 Redskins 20
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Ravens 20 Chargers 17
Patriots 31 Jets 17
Bears 21 Packers 17
Saints 27 Eagles 34
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Patriots 21 Ravens 24
Bears 28 Eagles 20
SUPERBOWL
Bears 17 Ravens 13
There you have it: Bears win the Superbowl. But we all knew that already!
Noffke's NFL Predictions
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Following in Ryan's Lead, I will have my NFL predictions.
I personally can't wait for the NFL season to start. I am sick and tired of hearing how bad the Bears are going to be and how lucky they were last year. This reached a peak today with Bill Barnwell said on the BS report he thinks the Bears will be the worst team in the NFL, primarily based on the new kickoff rule (WHAT!?). Anyway, here we go.
z - conference winner; y - bye week; x - division winner w - wildcard team.
AFC East
Z. Patriots
2. J-E-T-S
3. Bills
4. Dolphins
Patriots are as good as advertised. Jets have a good year, but miss the playoffs. Bills and Dolphins are terrible.
AFC South
X. Texans
W. Colts
3. Titans
4. Jags
I know, I know, Texans aren't that good, but who in this division is? Jags are the worst team in the NFL, Titans could be good depending on if CJ doesn't have any problems without a training camp and how well Hasselback plays. Colts make it in, but not the division winner unless Peyton gets healthy quick.
AFC West
X. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chiefs
Chiefs benefited from and easy schedule last year, and will struggle this year. Broncos will be good, but inconsistent again. Raiders will suprise with some stability for Jason Campbell in Offense (first time he's in the same offense 2 years in a row since High School) but the Chargers are the class of the West. It's tough to finish #1 in offense and defense and miss the playoffs, but some how they did it last year.
AFC North
Y. Steelers
W. Browns
3. Ravens
4. Bengals
Steelers will be the Steelers. I believe in Colt McCoy. Ravens will have a good year and the Bengals will struggle with New QB Andy Dalton, but he'll win Rookie of the Year.
NFC East
Y. Eagles
2. Redskins
3. Giants
4. Cowboys
Eagles have a lot of hype, and part of me thinks they could have a terrible year. Saying that, Andy Reid always seems to have his teams making the playoffs. Mike Shanonhan was embarassed last year and will have his team ready to play with Rex Grossman. Giants and Cowboys have solid years.
NFC South
Z. Falcons
W. Bucs
3. Saints
4. Panthers
Falcons get Home field primarily based on them getting to play the Panthers twice. Bucs keep on rising. Saints will be good, but just miss the playoffs.
NFC West
X. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. 49ers
4. Seahawks
Rams schedule is brutal to start, but no one in this division will run away from them. Cardinal's season will depend on Kolb. 49ers will be starting Kapernick by week 8 and the Seahawks are lousy.
NFC North
X. Packers
W. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings
Packers only go 9-7 and beat the Bears for the division on a tie breaker. Lions could be good, but everyone will get hurt again. Vikings could be good, but O-Line is a problem.
Playoffs (Home Team in CAPS)
AFC
Wildcard
Browns over CHARGERS
Colts over TEXANS
Semi-finals
STEELERS over Colts
PATRIOTS over Browns
Title Game
STEELERS over PATRIOTS
NFC Playoffs
Wildcard
Bears over PACKERS
Bucs over RAMS
Semi-Finals
Bears over FALCONS
EAGLES over Bucs
Title Game
Bears over EAGLES
Super Bowl
Steelers over Bears
I personally can't wait for the NFL season to start. I am sick and tired of hearing how bad the Bears are going to be and how lucky they were last year. This reached a peak today with Bill Barnwell said on the BS report he thinks the Bears will be the worst team in the NFL, primarily based on the new kickoff rule (WHAT!?). Anyway, here we go.
z - conference winner; y - bye week; x - division winner w - wildcard team.
AFC East
Z. Patriots
2. J-E-T-S
3. Bills
4. Dolphins
Patriots are as good as advertised. Jets have a good year, but miss the playoffs. Bills and Dolphins are terrible.
AFC South
X. Texans
W. Colts
3. Titans
4. Jags
I know, I know, Texans aren't that good, but who in this division is? Jags are the worst team in the NFL, Titans could be good depending on if CJ doesn't have any problems without a training camp and how well Hasselback plays. Colts make it in, but not the division winner unless Peyton gets healthy quick.
AFC West
X. Chargers
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chiefs
Chiefs benefited from and easy schedule last year, and will struggle this year. Broncos will be good, but inconsistent again. Raiders will suprise with some stability for Jason Campbell in Offense (first time he's in the same offense 2 years in a row since High School) but the Chargers are the class of the West. It's tough to finish #1 in offense and defense and miss the playoffs, but some how they did it last year.
AFC North
Y. Steelers
W. Browns
3. Ravens
4. Bengals
Steelers will be the Steelers. I believe in Colt McCoy. Ravens will have a good year and the Bengals will struggle with New QB Andy Dalton, but he'll win Rookie of the Year.
NFC East
Y. Eagles
2. Redskins
3. Giants
4. Cowboys
Eagles have a lot of hype, and part of me thinks they could have a terrible year. Saying that, Andy Reid always seems to have his teams making the playoffs. Mike Shanonhan was embarassed last year and will have his team ready to play with Rex Grossman. Giants and Cowboys have solid years.
NFC South
Z. Falcons
W. Bucs
3. Saints
4. Panthers
Falcons get Home field primarily based on them getting to play the Panthers twice. Bucs keep on rising. Saints will be good, but just miss the playoffs.
NFC West
X. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. 49ers
4. Seahawks
Rams schedule is brutal to start, but no one in this division will run away from them. Cardinal's season will depend on Kolb. 49ers will be starting Kapernick by week 8 and the Seahawks are lousy.
NFC North
X. Packers
W. Bears
3. Lions
4. Vikings
Packers only go 9-7 and beat the Bears for the division on a tie breaker. Lions could be good, but everyone will get hurt again. Vikings could be good, but O-Line is a problem.
Playoffs (Home Team in CAPS)
AFC
Wildcard
Browns over CHARGERS
Colts over TEXANS
Semi-finals
STEELERS over Colts
PATRIOTS over Browns
Title Game
STEELERS over PATRIOTS
NFC Playoffs
Wildcard
Bears over PACKERS
Bucs over RAMS
Semi-Finals
Bears over FALCONS
EAGLES over Bucs
Title Game
Bears over EAGLES
Super Bowl
Steelers over Bears
Week 1 Predictions
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Week 1 starts tomorrow, so I'm pumped. As a result, I'm going to make some predictions:
NFL MVP: Matt ForteOffensive Player of the Year: Matt ForteDefensive Player of the Year: Julius PeppersOffensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton (only because of shear playing time)Defensive Rookie of the Year: Vonn Miller
Sacks the Bears offensive line gives up: 29 sacks
Jay Cutler: 320/500 4,171 yards 35 tds 13 ints 200 rushing yards 2 rushing tds
Matt Forte: 294 carries 1,453 yards 4.9 ypc 15 rushing tds 45 receptions 611 yards receiving 9 tdsMarion Barber: 123 carries 527 yards 4 rushing tds 15 receptions 200 yards 1 td
Roy Williams: 26 catches 375 yards 3 tds 4 drops in first two games finds himself at bottom of depth chartDevin Hester: 46 receptions 580 yards 4 tdsEarl Bennett: 75 catches 1,127 yards 7 tdsJohnny Knox: 41 catches 593 yards 4 tdsDane Sazenbacher: 17 catches 239 yards 1 tdSam Hurd: 10 catches 87 yardsKyle Adams: 7 catches 50 yardsKellen Davis: 23 catches 245 yards 5 tdsMatt Spaeth: 15 catches 64 yards 1 td
Defense:
Julius Peppers 14 sacksHenry Melton 5.5 sacksAmobi Okoye 3.5 sacksIsrael Idonije 5 sacksCorey Wooten 7 sacksStephen Paea 3 sacksMatt Toeania 3.5 sacksAnthony Adams 1.5 sacksMario Addison 2 sacksBrian Urlacher 3 sacksLance Briggs 2 sacksRemainder of defense: 3 sacks
Total sacks: 53
Turnovers:
Brandon Merriweather 5 picksCharles Tillman 4 picksDJ Moore 4 picksChris Harris 4 picksTim Jennings 2 picksBrian Urlacher 2 picksLance Briggs 1 pick
Rest of the Defense: 3 picks
Total Interceptions: 25
Fumble Recovered: 15
Total Takeaways: 40Total Turnovers: 28Turnover Differential: +12
Devin Hester: 3 Punt Returns for a TD
Okay, now on to the Bears Falcons Game Prediction:
The Falcons are solid team, but they don't have a good pass rush nor any real depth at corner beyond their starters. The Bears' corners could be better, and at times the Bears lack consistent pressure. However, both teams' offense tend to rely on the run. The difference between these two teams is the fact that the Bears have the better defense and special teams, as well as will attack down field more often. The Falcons are stronger at WR and on their o-line. The running game is about a wash for both teams. The Falcons' tend to make short quick throws. Ultimately, I see the Falcons being able to move the ball between 30 yard lines, but getting stiffled. I see the Falcons settling for field goals. Meanwhile, I see the Bears' wide receiver's speed and the Falcons' poor pass rush being the difference in this game. The Bears will hit one or two huge plays down the field that will make the difference in this game, and they will be able to control the game on the ground more than the Falcons, since the Bears have the better run defense.
Final Score: Bears 27 Falcons 16
Matt Ryan 21-33 217 yards 1 td 1 intJay Cutler 20-28 318 yards 2 tds 1 int
Michael Turner 18 carries 58 yards 3.22 ypc 1 fumble lostJason Snelling 4 carries 16 yards 4 ypc
Matt Forte 24 carries 102 yards 4.25 ypc 1 tdMarion Barber 8 carries 30 yards 3.75 ypc
Roddy White 8 catches 111 yards 1 tdTony Gonzalez 5 catches 50 yardsMichael Jenkins 2 catches 11 yardsJulio Jones 2 catches 14 yardsJason Snelling 3 catches 24 yardsMichael Turner 1 catches 7 yards
Earl Bennett 6 catches 75 yardsRoy Williams 4 catches 64 yards 1 td (2 drops)Devin Hester 4 catches 87 yardsJohnny Knox 2 catches 51 yards 1 tdMatt Forte 2 catches 23 yardsMarion Barber 1 catches 11 yardsKellen Davis 1 catch 7 yards
Now, on to my Week 1 game predictions, home team in caps:
GREENBAY over SaintsCHICAGO over AtlantaCLEVELAND over CincinnatiBuffalo over KANSAS CITYPhiladelphia over ST. LOUISTAMPA BAY over DetroitTennessee over JACKSONVILLEBALTIMORE over PittsburghHOUSTON over IndianapolisARIZONA over CarolinaSAN DIEGO over MinnesotaSAN FRANCISCO over SeattleWASHINGTON over New York GiantsNEW YORK JETS over DallasNew England over MIAMIDENVER over Oakland
NFL MVP: Matt ForteOffensive Player of the Year: Matt ForteDefensive Player of the Year: Julius PeppersOffensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton (only because of shear playing time)Defensive Rookie of the Year: Vonn Miller
Sacks the Bears offensive line gives up: 29 sacks
Jay Cutler: 320/500 4,171 yards 35 tds 13 ints 200 rushing yards 2 rushing tds
Matt Forte: 294 carries 1,453 yards 4.9 ypc 15 rushing tds 45 receptions 611 yards receiving 9 tdsMarion Barber: 123 carries 527 yards 4 rushing tds 15 receptions 200 yards 1 td
Roy Williams: 26 catches 375 yards 3 tds 4 drops in first two games finds himself at bottom of depth chartDevin Hester: 46 receptions 580 yards 4 tdsEarl Bennett: 75 catches 1,127 yards 7 tdsJohnny Knox: 41 catches 593 yards 4 tdsDane Sazenbacher: 17 catches 239 yards 1 tdSam Hurd: 10 catches 87 yardsKyle Adams: 7 catches 50 yardsKellen Davis: 23 catches 245 yards 5 tdsMatt Spaeth: 15 catches 64 yards 1 td
Defense:
Julius Peppers 14 sacksHenry Melton 5.5 sacksAmobi Okoye 3.5 sacksIsrael Idonije 5 sacksCorey Wooten 7 sacksStephen Paea 3 sacksMatt Toeania 3.5 sacksAnthony Adams 1.5 sacksMario Addison 2 sacksBrian Urlacher 3 sacksLance Briggs 2 sacksRemainder of defense: 3 sacks
Total sacks: 53
Turnovers:
Brandon Merriweather 5 picksCharles Tillman 4 picksDJ Moore 4 picksChris Harris 4 picksTim Jennings 2 picksBrian Urlacher 2 picksLance Briggs 1 pick
Rest of the Defense: 3 picks
Total Interceptions: 25
Fumble Recovered: 15
Total Takeaways: 40Total Turnovers: 28Turnover Differential: +12
Devin Hester: 3 Punt Returns for a TD
Okay, now on to the Bears Falcons Game Prediction:
The Falcons are solid team, but they don't have a good pass rush nor any real depth at corner beyond their starters. The Bears' corners could be better, and at times the Bears lack consistent pressure. However, both teams' offense tend to rely on the run. The difference between these two teams is the fact that the Bears have the better defense and special teams, as well as will attack down field more often. The Falcons are stronger at WR and on their o-line. The running game is about a wash for both teams. The Falcons' tend to make short quick throws. Ultimately, I see the Falcons being able to move the ball between 30 yard lines, but getting stiffled. I see the Falcons settling for field goals. Meanwhile, I see the Bears' wide receiver's speed and the Falcons' poor pass rush being the difference in this game. The Bears will hit one or two huge plays down the field that will make the difference in this game, and they will be able to control the game on the ground more than the Falcons, since the Bears have the better run defense.
Final Score: Bears 27 Falcons 16
Matt Ryan 21-33 217 yards 1 td 1 intJay Cutler 20-28 318 yards 2 tds 1 int
Michael Turner 18 carries 58 yards 3.22 ypc 1 fumble lostJason Snelling 4 carries 16 yards 4 ypc
Matt Forte 24 carries 102 yards 4.25 ypc 1 tdMarion Barber 8 carries 30 yards 3.75 ypc
Roddy White 8 catches 111 yards 1 tdTony Gonzalez 5 catches 50 yardsMichael Jenkins 2 catches 11 yardsJulio Jones 2 catches 14 yardsJason Snelling 3 catches 24 yardsMichael Turner 1 catches 7 yards
Earl Bennett 6 catches 75 yardsRoy Williams 4 catches 64 yards 1 td (2 drops)Devin Hester 4 catches 87 yardsJohnny Knox 2 catches 51 yards 1 tdMatt Forte 2 catches 23 yardsMarion Barber 1 catches 11 yardsKellen Davis 1 catch 7 yards
Now, on to my Week 1 game predictions, home team in caps:
GREENBAY over SaintsCHICAGO over AtlantaCLEVELAND over CincinnatiBuffalo over KANSAS CITYPhiladelphia over ST. LOUISTAMPA BAY over DetroitTennessee over JACKSONVILLEBALTIMORE over PittsburghHOUSTON over IndianapolisARIZONA over CarolinaSAN DIEGO over MinnesotaSAN FRANCISCO over SeattleWASHINGTON over New York GiantsNEW YORK JETS over DallasNew England over MIAMIDENVER over Oakland
NFL Player Predictions
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Before I head off to Yogis for yet another Bloomington drinking adventure, a few predictions on some surprises and disappointments this year. In no particular order:
1) J'Marcus Webb makes the Pro Bowl as an alternate and gets signed to a long term contract. Gabe Carimi also gets strong consideration. Webb, the former seventh rounder from Nowhere Directional State (aka: I'm too lazy to look it up right now) becomes one of the better stories of the NFL year.
I'm pretty sure this OL will be better off without Olin Kreutz, whose asshole attitude long ago became his strongest attribute. When you're an offensive lineman, I hate to break it to ya, but blocking is more important than sucker punching teammates.
2) The Bengals and the Seahawks vie for the title of Worst Team in the NFL. Despite this, Marshawn Lynch rushes for over 1,000 yards and eight TDs. My fantasy interests may have something to do with the second half of this prediction.
3) Bill Belichik and the Patriots miss the playoffs and go 8-8. Albert Haynesworth doesn't play in more than six games.
4) The Bears make the playoffs, and Johnny Knox pushes Roy Williams to the bench by Game Three. Knox finishes with over 1,000 yards receiving, the first Bear to do so in almost a decade. Rookie Dane Sanzenbacher finishes with over 40 catches. Williams finishes with under 40 and ends the season on IR.
5) Your out-of-nowhere WR star? Oakland WR Derek Hagan. Just remember I called it. This is what is referred to as a "low-risk" projection, since I look like a genius if/when it happens, and there is absolutely no risk of looking like an idiot if/when it doesn't. I have Hagan with over 900 total yards and as many as 10-11 TDs. Really, who's goanna push him on that Raiders team? Jacoby Ford? It's not a track meet, folks. Darius Heyward-Bey? HAH!
Anyway, Derek Hagan. You heard it here first.
6) I'll roll with the other totally impartial ACSS writers on Super Bowl projections. Bears over, oh hell, Houston for the Super Bowl title. And absolute insanity in Indianapolis as 500,000 Chicago fans descend on our sleepy neighbor to the south.
7) I'll be in Indy making chili and selling it for $5 a cup when this happens. All week long. Ohhhh yes.
1) J'Marcus Webb makes the Pro Bowl as an alternate and gets signed to a long term contract. Gabe Carimi also gets strong consideration. Webb, the former seventh rounder from Nowhere Directional State (aka: I'm too lazy to look it up right now) becomes one of the better stories of the NFL year.
I'm pretty sure this OL will be better off without Olin Kreutz, whose asshole attitude long ago became his strongest attribute. When you're an offensive lineman, I hate to break it to ya, but blocking is more important than sucker punching teammates.
2) The Bengals and the Seahawks vie for the title of Worst Team in the NFL. Despite this, Marshawn Lynch rushes for over 1,000 yards and eight TDs. My fantasy interests may have something to do with the second half of this prediction.
3) Bill Belichik and the Patriots miss the playoffs and go 8-8. Albert Haynesworth doesn't play in more than six games.
4) The Bears make the playoffs, and Johnny Knox pushes Roy Williams to the bench by Game Three. Knox finishes with over 1,000 yards receiving, the first Bear to do so in almost a decade. Rookie Dane Sanzenbacher finishes with over 40 catches. Williams finishes with under 40 and ends the season on IR.
5) Your out-of-nowhere WR star? Oakland WR Derek Hagan. Just remember I called it. This is what is referred to as a "low-risk" projection, since I look like a genius if/when it happens, and there is absolutely no risk of looking like an idiot if/when it doesn't. I have Hagan with over 900 total yards and as many as 10-11 TDs. Really, who's goanna push him on that Raiders team? Jacoby Ford? It's not a track meet, folks. Darius Heyward-Bey? HAH!Anyway, Derek Hagan. You heard it here first.
6) I'll roll with the other totally impartial ACSS writers on Super Bowl projections. Bears over, oh hell, Houston for the Super Bowl title. And absolute insanity in Indianapolis as 500,000 Chicago fans descend on our sleepy neighbor to the south.
7) I'll be in Indy making chili and selling it for $5 a cup when this happens. All week long. Ohhhh yes.
Green Bay -- Color Me Unimpressed!
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Wow, last nights game was great, it had nearly everything. A last second goal line stand with 0:00 on the clock. A phantom pass interference call that almost caused a major controversy. Nearly 1,000 yards of total offense. Two great QB's slinging it all over the field. A Chuck Woodson uppercut and no removal from the game. And a whole lot of defense... oh wait.
I'm sorry Green Bay, but, to me, your defense was exposed for what it will be this year: BAD. Green Bay lost Cullen Jenkins in the offseason. In my head, a fair comparison to what this means Tommie Harris and the 2007 and beyond Bears defense (not including last year). The Packers no longer have that guy that can get pressure, or allow others, like Clay Matthews, to be even more effective. Instead, teams can key in Clay Matthews and begin to dismantle you through the air. The best part about the Packers is that they already had issues run stopping. So, if their defense is going to play at the same level as it did last night Green Bay is going to find itself in a whole lot of shoot outs. Oh yeah, and they will find themselves behind the Bears all season long.
So, while the prognosticators and experts are all impressed by the win, because not one of them has ever come to understand that defenses really do win championships (can't win one without a decent defense), I am thoroughly unimpressed by Green Bay. And I'm even less impressed by the Saints, who look like they can't get any pressure nor stop the run or the pass. I could see the Bears going 3-0 in their first three games. On Sunday, let's show these two teams how to play defense.
I'm sorry Green Bay, but, to me, your defense was exposed for what it will be this year: BAD. Green Bay lost Cullen Jenkins in the offseason. In my head, a fair comparison to what this means Tommie Harris and the 2007 and beyond Bears defense (not including last year). The Packers no longer have that guy that can get pressure, or allow others, like Clay Matthews, to be even more effective. Instead, teams can key in Clay Matthews and begin to dismantle you through the air. The best part about the Packers is that they already had issues run stopping. So, if their defense is going to play at the same level as it did last night Green Bay is going to find itself in a whole lot of shoot outs. Oh yeah, and they will find themselves behind the Bears all season long.
So, while the prognosticators and experts are all impressed by the win, because not one of them has ever come to understand that defenses really do win championships (can't win one without a decent defense), I am thoroughly unimpressed by Green Bay. And I'm even less impressed by the Saints, who look like they can't get any pressure nor stop the run or the pass. I could see the Bears going 3-0 in their first three games. On Sunday, let's show these two teams how to play defense.
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